US: CNBC-Reciprocal Tariffs Will Not Go Into Effect Today
Feb-13 15:15
Eamon Javers at CNBC posts on X: "I’m told the new tariffs President Trump announces today will NOT go into effect today. There will be a time delay of some months, possibly an April 1 start date. That’s still TBD. This will be a presidential memorandum today not an executive order, and USTR will be tasked with developing next steps."
- As MNI noted earlier, "Based upon previous tariff announcements, Trump's order signing is likely to be accompanied by a White House press release detailing the implementation of the measures. Primary market focus will be on the precise date of implementation, with Trump's previous announcement of steel and aluminium tariffs delayed by one month, opening the door to negotiations and softening the market reaction." (see 'US: Trump Confirms Reciprocal Tariff Announcement Will Come At 13:00 ET 18:00GMT' 1404GMT)
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STIR: BoE Pricing Moves Towards 40bp Of Cuts For '25
Jan-14 15:06
GBP STIRs are a little more hawkish on the day.
- 40.5bp of cuts priced through year-end vs. last week’s extreme of ~39bp, ~2bp more hawkish on the day.
- SONIA futures little changed to -2.5, with some of last week’s lows pierced.
- Chancellor Reeves did little to placate fiscal concerns earlier today.
- CPI data eyed tomorrow, click for our full preview.
- BoE dovish dissenter Taylor will speak later on Wednesday (16:30 London).
- It will be interesting to see whether Taylor explicitly addresses the change in market prices, given the moves since the release of the BoE’s MPR forecasts.
- The views of the three dissenters in the December MPC Minutes described the “sluggish demand and a weakening labour market, now and in the year ahead, both of which would see further downward pressure on demand, wages, and prices.” And noted that “given the evolving balance of risks, a less restrictive policy rate was warranted” in the view of the three dissenting members.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Feb-25 | 4.547 | -15.3 |
| Mar-25 | 4.531 | -16.9 |
| May-25 | 4.451 | -24.9 |
| Jun-25 | 4.416 | -28.5 |
| Aug-25 | 4.354 | -34.6 |
| Sep-25 | 4.347 | -35.3 |
| Nov-25 | 4.306 | -39.4 |
| Dec-25 | 4.295 | -40.5 |
EQUITIES: EU Bank more outright Put buyer
Jan-14 15:06
SX7E (21st Mar) 130p, bought for 0.80 in 6k.
EQUITIES: EU Bank put buyer
Jan-14 15:03
SX7E (21st Feb) 145p, bought for 1.50 in 10k.
