ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Friday

• RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.4548 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
• PRICE: 1.4513 @ 16:33 GMT Mar 4 
• SUP 1: 1.4370/4296 Low Mar 3 / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle

The USDCAD correction / bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains in play for now and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Monday’s gains reinforce current conditions and sights are on a climb towards 1.4548, a Fibonacci retracement point. The short-term bear trigger has been defined at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4296, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight an early reversal signal.  

• Treasuries look to finish mostly lower Tuesday, curves twisting steeper (2s10s +5.578 at 25.717) as Bonds lead reversal off this morning's highs (USM5 tapped 119-18 high, tapped 118-00 after the bell).
• Move partially tied to rebound in stocks off lows during the same period of time, Nasdaq firmly in the green before making a late retreat ahead of the close. Another factor was a retreat in Bunds amid reports officials were proposing a E500B "whatever it takes" defense fund.
• No substantive data Tuesday, "I do factor in some effect of tariffs on inflation on prices. I do think we're going to see that later this year," Williams told a Q&A at a Bloomberg Invest event.
• Focus turns to President Trump addressing the joint session of Congress tonight at 2100ET. Followed by ADP private employ data tomorrow morning at 0815ET.
• Late session chatter that President Trump looks to announce a late term minerals deal with Ukraine after all.

• Released the week after the January decision, the ECB's latest wage tracker update saw the path for wages - based on signed collective bargaining agreements excluding one-off payments - revised a shade higher through 2025.
• It was immaterial though, continuing to underscore ECB expectations for wages to moderate through this year and eventually helping to drive disinflation in services.
• The ex one-off payments series see wage growth slowing to 3.0% Y/Y in 4Q25 (vs 2.9% in the December update) from 4.7% Y/Y in 4Q24.
• Since then, the Indeed wage tracker released Feb 18 saw a broad-based deceleration in January, with annual posted wage growth easing to 2.57% Y/Y from 3.35% in December (vs 3.26% initial) for the lowest since October 2021.