ASIA: Coming up in the Asia-Pac session on Monday
| 2130GMT | 0530HKT | 0830AEDT | New Zealand Feb Performance Services Index |
| 2350GMT | 0750HKT | 1050AEDT | Japan Jan Core Machine Orders |
| 0001GMT | 0801HKT | 1101AEDT | UK Mar Rightmove House Prices |
| 0200GMT | 1000HKT | 1300AEDT | China Feb Retail Sales |
| 0200GMT | 1000HKT | 1300AEDT | China Feb Property Investment |
| 0200GMT | 1000HKT | 1300AEDT | China Feb Fixed Assets Ex Rural |
| 0200GMT | 1000HKT | 1300AEDT | China Feb Surveyed Jobless Rate |
| 0200GMT | 1000HKT | 1300AEDT | China Feb Industrial Production |
| 0200GMT | 1000HKT | 1300AEDT | New Zealand Feb Non Resident Bond Holdings |
| 0330GMT | 1130HKT | 1430AEDT | Japan to Sell 12-Month Bills |
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AUDUSD TECHS: Firmer Close Despite Bearish Trend Signals
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
- RES 1: 0.6546/6625 20-day EMA / High Jan 30 and key resistance
- PRICE: 0.6532 @ 16:31 GMT Feb 16
- SUP 1: 0.6443 Low Feb 13
- SUP 2: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
- SUP 3: 0.6360 Low Nov 14
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10
AUD/USD posted a firm weekly and daily close Friday, rebuffing the bearish trend condition. The Latest bounce is still considered corrective at these levels, with Tuesday’s initial break lower reinforcing the bearish theme. To the downside, sights rest on 0.6412, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a clear downtrend. Key resistance to watch is 0.6625, the Jan 30 high. Initial resistance is at 0.6546, the 20-day EMA.
US TSYS: Tsys Weaker/Near Support After Strong PPI Print
- Treasury futures holding weaker after the bell - off lows after breaching technical support following this morning's higher than expected PPI.
- Headline final demand PPI printed at its highest SA monthly rate since August '23 in January, with the unrounded 0.33% M/M print easily overshooting the 0.1% M/M consensus (vs -0.15% prior after Wednesday's revisions).
- The core metrics overshot consensus by a larger margin. PPI ex-food and energy at 0.50% M/M (vs 0.1% cons, -0.06% prior) brings the 3mma annualized rate to 2.42% (vs 0.56% prior). Perhaps the one encouraging factor is the 6mma annualized rate, which still moderated a touch to 1.61% (vs 1.75% prior).
- Lower than expected: Housing Starts (1.331M, 1.460M est, prior up-revised to 1.562M from 1.460M) and Building Permits (1.470M vs. 1.512M est).
- Mar'24 10Y futures currently -14.5 at 109-23, after breaching initial technical support of 109-17 (50.0% of Oct 19 - Dec 27 climb) vs. 109-15 intraday low. Curves bear flatten: 2s10s -1.567 at -36.176, 10Y yield +.0669 at 4.2969%.
- Slow start to the week ahead, no data Monday for Presidents Day holiday (rates open for shortened hours on Globex). Tuesday: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity and Leading Index (-0.1%, -0.3%). Treasury supply: $79B 13W, $70B 26W and $46B 52W bill auctions.
EURJPY TECHS: Clears Mid-Jan Highs
- RES 4: 164.30 High Nov 16 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 3: 163.72 High Nov 27
- RES 2: 162.25 High Nov 29
- RES 1: 161.92 High Feb 16
- PRICE: 161.89 @ 16:27 GMT Feb 16
- SUP 1: 160.37 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 158.92/08 Low Feb 7 / 1 and key support
- SUP 3: 157.21 Low Jan 9
- SUP 4: 156.08 Low Jan 4
EURJPY maintains a firmer tone and topped the mid-Jan highs of 161.86 ahead of the Friday close. With key resistance pierced the uptrend off Dec lows has resumed, opening 162.25, the Nov 29 high. Key short-term support is unchanged at 158.08, Feb 1 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. Initial support lies at 160.37, the 20-day EMA.
