EU: Commission Outlines 'Competitiveness Compass'

Jan-29 12:50

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Executive Vice-President for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy Stéphane Séjourné are outlining the so-called 'Competition Compass', the Commission's roadmap for boosting EU competitiveness over the coming five years in the face of continued competition with China and a Trump administration in the US racing to cut red tape. Livestream here

  • The Compass outlines three main aims:
    1. 'Closing the innovation gap' - boosting action in high-growth industries like AI, advanced materials, quantum, biotech, robotics and space technologies. Also simplify corporate law, insolvency, labour and tax law, and reduce the costs of failure to encourage investment.
    2. 'A joint roadmap for decarbonisation and competitiveness' - commitment to the Clean Industrial Deal that looks for 'a competitiveness-driven approach to decarbonisation,' put forward an 'Affordable Energy Action Plan will help bring down energy prices and costs'. Promises  'tailor-made action plans for energy intensive sectors, such as steel, metals, and chemicals,' to protect them during transition.
    3. 'Reducing excessive dependencies and increasing security.' - Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships to help secure supply of raw materials, clean energy, sustainable transport fuels, and clean tech from across the world. A review of the Public Procurement rules will allow for the introduction of a European preference in public procurement for critical sectors and technologies.
  • A press release on the Compass is here. A factsheet here. The full 26-page document can be found here

Historical bullets

STIR: Large Jun'25 SOFR Midcurve Option Package

Dec-30 12:31
  • Just over 33,000 0QM5 96.37/97.00 call spds vs. 95.37/95.62 put spds ref 96.02 - checking direction.

US TSYS: Tsys Unwinding Friday's Sale, PMI, Pending Home Sales Ahead Year End

Dec-30 11:47
  • Treasuries are looking modestly firmer, near early early London session highs as rates recover from Friday's sell-off. The Mar'25 10Y contract trades 108-19 last (+5) vs. 108-21 high on decent volumes heading into year end: just over 175k at the moment.
  • Average to small year-end duration extensions: US +0.07Y, EU: +0.04Y, UK -.02Y (Bbg)
  • Tsy 10Y yield at 4.5951% (-.0303), curves mixed with 2s10s -.342 at 28.950 despite overnight Block steepener: +4,276 TUH5 at 102-22.75 vs. -2,592 TYH5 108-17.5 (0256:12ET); 5s30s +1.752 at 37.159.
  • Projected rate cuts into early 2025 look steady to slightly higher vs. late Friday levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -13.6bp (-13.3bp), May'25 -19.5bp (-18.5bp), Jun'25 -28.8bp (-26.5bp).
  • Data on tap (prior, estimate): MNI Chicago PMI (40.2, 43.0) at 0945ET, followed by Pending Home Sales at 1000ET MoM (2.0%, 0.8%), YoY (6.6%, 7.9%). Dallas Fed Mfg Activity at 1030ET (-2.7, -3.0). Dearth of scheduled Fed speak until Richmond Fed's Barkin gives keynote remarks at a Maryland Bankers assn event on January 3 at 1100ET (text & Q&A).
  • Treasury auctions $84B 13W, $72B 26W bills at 1130ET followed by 75B 42D CMBs at 1300ET.

EUROPEAN INFLATION: Portugal HICP Accelerates, Core CPI Also Higher

Dec-30 11:41

Portugal HICP rose to 3.1% Y/Y in December, its highest since June 2024 and notably above November's 2.7%. The national CPI measure also saw some acceleration, both on headline (3.01% vs 2.47% Nov) as well as on core (2.80% vs 2.61% Nov). Behind the higher CPI headline, Statistics Portugal identifies energy and unprocessed food as the predominant drivers.

  • Specifically, energy CPI came in at 4.89% Y/Y (2.14% Nov, mainly driven by base effects as M/M this was +0.43%), while unprocessed food CPI was 3.42% Y/Y (1.95% prior, again partially a base effect as this was +0.50%M/M).
  • CPI excl. housing accelerated just over 0.5pp, as headline, indicating that rental inflation saw a similar increase to the wider index (+0.10% M/M).
  • For reference, Portugal contributes 2.4% to the overall Eurozone HICP 2024 basket.
  • December flash inflation data for Ireland will be released tomorrow, with the other major releases of the December round out next week. Belgium HICP already came in at 4.4% Y/Y, decelerating four tenths vs November, while Spain HICP surprised consensus to the upside earlier today (2.8% Y/Y vs 2.6% cons).
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