EGBS: Commodity Pullback Provides Light Support To Major Futures

RXH5 135/136cs bought for 4.5 in 7.5k.

RXG5 125.5p, bought for 1 in 2.2k.

Our preview of Wednesday's December CPI release has been published (PDF): 

• Consensus sees core CPI inflation decelerating slightly to between 0.2 to 0.3% M/M in December, with MNI’s analyst review pointing to an average estimate of 0.24% so a bias toward a 0.2% rounded figure.
• Likely to be the single most closely watched individual aspect of Wednesday’s CPI report, rental inflation is expected to accelerate to an average figure that firmly rounds to 0.3% M/M in December.
• Supercore inflation is seen pulling back, though, to the upper 0.20s%, from 0.34% in November.
• If housing is our top pick to watch this month then core goods inflation – which is seen pulling back in December - is closely second, amid tariffs speculation.
• Initial estimates point to core PCE inflation at ~0.20% M/M, softer in outright terms but on a relative basis an acceleration from the softer 0.115% in Nov. That outlook will hinge partly on PPI data out Tuesday.
• It is clear that the Fed will hold in January, with the first plausibly “live” meeting not until March. But with pricing having shifted so quickly away from 2025 cuts, it’s a good juncture to assess whether markets have gotten too hawkish.
• Even in-line inflation readings could bolster the FOMC leadership’s confidence that they are on track to get PCE to 2%, and leave the door open to two rate cuts later this year, though this report is not widely expected to provide the requisite evidence.