COPPER TECHS: (K5) Fresh Cycle High
Mar-12 14:52
- RES 4: $514.40 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 2 - 17 - Feb 3 price swing
- RES 3: $503.59 - 1.764 proj of the Jan 2 - 17 - Feb 3 price swing
- RES 2: $500.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $490.35 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $482.25 @ 14:42 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: $451.79 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $451.15 - Low Feb 28
- SUP 3: $422.80 - Low Feb 3 and key support
- SUP 4: $403.85 - Low Jan 2 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle in Copper futures remains in play, and the latest pullback has proved to be a correction. Today’s gains reinforce this bullish theme - the move higher has delivered a print above 488.50, the Feb 14 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open the $500.00 handle next. Support to watch is $451.79, the 50-day EMA.
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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Unrounded Core CPI Estimates Centered On 0.3% M/M
Feb-10 14:41
- Due Wednesday at 0830ET, consensus sees core CPI inflation at a seasonally adjusted 0.3% M/M in January.
- The below unrounded estimates are firmly centered on that with a median 0.30% M/M or average 0.29% M/M, with a range of 0.22-0.37% M/M. It would be an acceleration from the 0.23% M/M in December, assuming no revisions in the annual update due to be released simultaneously.
- The limited early estimates for core PCE inflation at this stage average 0.29% M/M in January for a firmer acceleration from the 0.16% M/M in December.
- Whilst these estimates would see core CPI right on the cusp of rounding either to 3.1% or 3.2% Y/Y after the 3.24% Y/Y in December, well-known base effects would see a larger moderation in core PCE (from 2.79% to 2.58% Y/Y in the hypothetical case with no revisions).
USD: USDJPY is paring gains
Feb-10 14:38
- Worth keeping an aye on the USDJPY, Bond futures are extending gains, Yields are moving lower.
- The USDJPY saw another volatile overnight session, a function of the Dollar on US Tariffs risks, and had already printed a 151.16 low Overnight, although the initial support is still seen at 150.93 Low Feb 07.
- USDJPY is down to 151.65 at the time of typing.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: March'25 5Y Buy
Feb-10 14:35
- +6,800 FVH5 106-16.75, buy through 106-16.5 post time offer at 0927:48ET, DV01 $280,000. The 5Y contract trades 106-17.25 last (+2.5).
