POLAND: Core CPI Prints At +3.6% Y/Y, Gov't To Unveil Deregulation Proposals
- The key measure of Poland's core inflation (CPI ex-food and inflation) stayed unchanged at +3.6% Y/Y in March, printing marginally below consensus forecast of +3.5%. Core inflation was relatively stable across various indices. The 15% trimmed mean remained at +4.6% Y/Y, CPI ex-most volatile prices ticked higher to +5.0% Y/Y from +4.9%, while CPI ex-administered prices edged lower to +3.4% Y/Y from +3.5%.
- The government is looking to unveil the first package of deregulation reforms prepared in collaboration with a team of academic, experts and executives led by business tycoon and InPost CEO Rafal Brzoska in an initiative seemingly inspired by the Trump administration's deregulation drive. A survey conducted by the Polish Economic Institute showed that half of the firms expect red tape cuts to reduce the costs of doing business.
- Meanwhile, Brzoska's InPost has just announced an acquisition of Yodel, which will accelerate its aggressive expansion in the UK. Following the acquisition, InPost is set to become the third-largest independent logistics player in the country.
- Latest opinion polls suggested that Civic Coalition's (KO's) Rafal Trzaskowski suffered a setback after skipping a couple of debates organised by conservative TV channel Republika. A new Ipsos/TVP survey showed that his support rate slumped by 8pp to 28%, while his main rival Law and Justice's (PiS's) Karol Nawrocki improved his result by 1pp to 22%. A separate SW Research/Onet poll showed that a plurality of respondents (44.8%) was critical of Trzaskowski's absence at the debates.
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BTP TECHS: (M5) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5
- RES 1: 117.04/117.71 High Mar 17 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 116.99 @ Close Mar 17
- SUP 1: 115.75 Low Mar 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
Short-term gains in BTP futures are considered corrective. Note that the trend has recently been in oversold territory and a recovery is allowing this condition to unwind. Resistance to watch 117.71, the 20-day EMA, ahead of 118.56, the Mar 5 high. A resumption of weakness and a breach of 115.75, the Mar 14 low, would confirm a continuation of the downtrend and open 115.52, a Fibonacci projection.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 93.79 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 1: 92.37/63 High Mar 17 / 7 and a key resistance
- PRICE: 92.28 @ Close Mar 17
- SUP 1: 91.07/90.71 Low Mar 13 / 6
- SUP 2: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 89.71 2.000 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish and gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the downtrend would pave the way for a test of 90.71, the Mar 6 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 90.49, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 92.63, Mar 7 high. A move above this level would instead strengthen a bullish theme.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Finland, Germany, Spain, France and Ireland are all still due to hold auctions this week, whilst Slovakia already issued. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E27.2bln, vs E32.2bln last week.
For the full document including more details on issuance this week and next week click here.
- Today, Finland will hold a conventional auction to a sell combined E1.0-1.5bln of the 3.00% Sep-34 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000571104) and the 2.75% Apr-38 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000546528).
- Tomorrow, Germany will hold a 30-year Bund auction to sell E1.0bln of the 0% Aug-50 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102481) alongside E1.5bln of the 1.80% Aug-53 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102614).
