POLAND: Core CPI Prints At +3.6% Y/Y, Gov't To Unveil Deregulation Proposals

• RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28      
• RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5   
• RES 1: 117.04/117.71 High Mar 17 / 20-day EMA        
• PRICE: 116.99 @ Close Mar 17 
• SUP 1: 115.75 Low Mar 14 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing   

Short-term gains in BTP futures are considered corrective. Note that the trend has recently been in oversold territory and a recovery is allowing this condition to unwind. Resistance to watch 117.71, the 20-day EMA, ahead of 118.56, the Mar 5 high. A resumption of weakness and a breach of 115.75, the Mar 14 low, would confirm a continuation of the downtrend and open 115.52, a Fibonacci projection.

• RES 4: 94.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 93.79 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger         
• RES 2: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart  
• RES 1: 92.37/63 High Mar 17 / 7 and a key resistance                      
• PRICE: 92.28 @ Close Mar 17
• SUP 1: 91.07/90.71 Low Mar 13 / 6                                     
• SUP 2: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing  
• SUP 3: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing   
• SUP 4: 89.71 2.000 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing 

The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish and gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the downtrend would pave the way for a test of 90.71, the Mar 6 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 90.49, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 92.63, Mar 7 high. A move above this level would instead strengthen a bullish theme.

Finland, Germany, Spain, France and Ireland are all still due to hold auctions this week, whilst Slovakia already issued. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E27.2bln, vs E32.2bln last week.

For the full document including more details on issuance this week and next week click here.

• Today, Finland will hold a conventional auction to a sell combined E1.0-1.5bln of the 3.00% Sep-34 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000571104) and the 2.75% Apr-38 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000546528).
• Tomorrow, Germany will hold a 30-year Bund auction to sell E1.0bln of the 0% Aug-50 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102481) alongside E1.5bln of the 1.80% Aug-53 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102614).