USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

The advance estimate of Canadian manufacturing sales shows a 0.2% M/M nominal decline in February, led by falls in food / petroleum and coal products, per StatCan.

• If confirmed, it would mark the weakest reading / first decline (in nominal terms) since September.
• Recall that the prior figure (+1.7% M/M) reflected a strong rise in motor vehicle and primary metals sales, and though real sales rose by just 0.9%, the latter should mean a decent contribution from industry to January GDP (out Friday; consensus is +0.3% M/M after +0.2%).
• However - pending prelim wholesale sales data out this Wednesday - industry in February may have proven sequentially weaker, and comes against a backdrop of uncertainty and volatility amid a nascent US-Canada trade war.

• Treasuries look to finish near lows Monday as Trump admin trade policy narrowed from universal tariffs to more targeted approach when the April 2 "Liberation Day" arrives.
• Treasury futures extended lows after S&P Flash PMI services (54.3 bbg cons 51.0) and composite (53.5 cons 50.9) data came out higher then expected while manufacturing declined (49.8 bbg cons 51.7).
• Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic (non-2025 FOMC voter, leans hawk) says in a Bloomberg interview that he has reduced his 2025 rate cut expectations to 1 in March's economic projections versus 2 previously, "because I think we will see inflation be very bumpy", and delayed inflation progress warranted pushing back the path to neutral rates.
• The Jun'25 10Y currently trades 110-17 (-18), just above initial technical support at 110-16.5 (Low Mar 24) followed by 110-12.5 (Low Mar 6 & 13). Resistance above at 111-25 (Mar 11 high), support below at 110-12.5/110-00 (Low Mar 6 & 13 / High Feb 7). Tsy 10Y yield climbs to 4.3346% high, curves still mixed: 2s10s +.014 at 29.406, 5s30s -1.943 at 56.480.
• Late tariff headlines saw risk sentiment cool slightly after Trump said he would announce additional tariffs on cars "shortly" and pharmaceuticals at "some point".

• RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 152.70 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Mar 11 bear leg  
• RES 2: 151.01/30 50-day EMA / High Mar 3  
• RES 1: 150.76 High Mar 24 
• PRICE: 150.54 @ 16:53 GMT Mar 24 
• SUP 1: 148.18/146.54 Low Mar 20 / 11 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 147.02 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 145.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg 

The primary trend direction in USDJPY is down and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance to watch is 151.01, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger rally. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 146.54, the Mar 11 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.