EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• MNI: GERMAN Q4 FINAL GDP -0.2% Q/Q, -0.2% Y/Y

• RES 4: 161.35 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg     
• RES 3: 161.19 High Feb 13       
• RES 2: 160.23 50-day EMA and key short-term resistance 
• RES 1: 158.82 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 156.71 @ 07:06 GMT Feb 25
• SUP 1: 155.82/155.61 Low Feb 21 / 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
• SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
• SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23

EURJPY maintains a softer tone for now. Attention is on key short-term support at 155.61, the Feb 10 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important bearish break and set the scene for an extension towards 155.15, the Sep 16 ‘24 low, and 154.42, the Aug 5 ‘24 low and a key medium-term bear trigger. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at 158.82, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is 160.23, the 50-day EMA.

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12      
• RES 3: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg 
• RES 2: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Feb 7 
• RES 1: 120.47 High Feb 13     
• PRICE: 119.88 @ Close Feb 24 
• SUP 1: 118.95 Low Feb 19
• SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)    

A bullish cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. A stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 120.98 (recently pierced) and 121.88, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would instead highlight a reversal and the end of the corrective bull cycle. First support lies at 118.95, the Feb 19 low.