EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Gains Run Further
- RES 4: 162.70 High Jan 28
- RES 3: 162.49 High Jan 29
- RES 2: 161.09 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 160.38 High Feb 12
- PRICE: 160.07 @ 16:11 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 157.90/155.61 Intraday low / Low Feb 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY is sharply firmer Wednesday as the cross extends the rebound from Monday’s low. MA studies are in a bear-mode position and this suggests that the latest recovery is likely a correction - however today’s rally shows the correction has legs. Initial resistance at 159.93 has given way, shifting focus to key resistance at 161.09, the 50-day EMA, where a break would highlight a stronger reversal. The bear trigger lies at 155.61, the Feb 10 low.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.2629 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 1.2607 High Dec 30
- RES 2: 1.2482/2576 20-day EMA / High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2367 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 1.2169@ 19:52 GMT Jan 13
- SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10
- SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair traded to a fresh trend low on Monday. Last week’s move down confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2367, the Jan 9 high.
US TSYS: Late Session Risk-On Move: Israeli Ceasefire/Hostage Deal Chatter
Seeing a bit of late session risk-on, Tsys softening ((TYH5 107-08, -4.5) while stocks climb off lower lvls, SPX Eminis near steady, DJIA outperforming, Nasdaq weaker but well off lows. Appears to be reacting to tweet making the rounds that "Israeli official says ceasefire-hostage deal may be reached tomorrow".
EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence Intact
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 3: 1.0513 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
- RES 1: 1.0374 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.0211 @ 19:47 GMT Jan 13
- SUP 1: 1.0178 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0122 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and recent short-term gains have proved to be a correction. Friday’s move lower resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The pair also traded lower Monday. The break of 1.0226 confirms a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0138 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 1.0458, Dec 30 high.
