INDONESIA: Country Wrap: Indonesian DCM Growth to Continue. 

• RES 4: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg           
• RES 3: 133.71 High Feb 5 and a reversal trigger  
• RES 2: 132.97 High Feb 13 and a key near-term resistance 
• RES 1: 132.90 High Feb 21                
• PRICE: 132.29 @ 05:23 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 131.26 Low Feb 19 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support             
• SUP 3: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 130.11 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing    

The rebound in Bund futures on Friday appears to be corrective - for now. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and attention turns to key short-term resistance at 132.97, the Feb 13 high. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal. On the downside, the short-term bear trigger has been defined at 131.26, the Feb 19 low. A break of this level would resume the bear cycle that started Feb 5.

Asian stocks have traded mixed at the start of the week, with investors staying cautious following a Wall Street selloff triggered by weak economic data. The Hang Seng and mainland Chinese benchmarks remained range-bound, while a broad gauge of Asian equities edged lower after hitting a four-month high on Friday. The dollar weakened, with the euro gaining 0.5% after Germany’s conservative party secured an election victory.

• Chinese tech stocks, which have rallied this year on AI optimism and policy support, remained a key focus. Allianz Global Investors noted that China remains under-owned by foreign investors despite its innovation potential. Meanwhile, trade tensions persisted, with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng raising concerns over new U.S. tariffs, and President Trump directing further restrictions on Chinese investment in strategic sectors. The HSI is -0.70%, while CSI 300 is -0.20%
• Japan is out today for a publica holiday, however Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway signaled plans to increase its stake in Japan’s five largest trading houses.
• South Korea's KOSPI dropped 0.60% as auto and chip stocks led declines. Samsung Electronics fell 1.37%, SK hynix lost 3.34%, and Hyundai Motor slipped 0.50%. However, POSCO Holdings rose 0.18%, and HMM surged 13.82%.
• Taiwan's TAIEX is 0.6% lower as global semiconductor stocks struggle, TSMC is down 1.40%, following the SOX dropping 3.28% on Friday.
• Australia's ASX 200 is flat with as mining and tech stocks struggle. Wisetech Global plummeted as much as 23% after director resignations over disagreements with its founder. New Zealand's The NZX 50 dropped 1.7%, with Summerset Group dropping 6.5%. 

Looking ahead, Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday will be a key risk event, as traders anticipate higher market volatility, given the company’s central role in the AI-driven rally. Other notable events include central bank decisions in South Korea and Thailand, along with U.S. consumer confidence data.

• Tsys futures are trading slightly lower today, however remain trading within Friday's ranges. Cash tsys trading has been closed with Japan out and with a lack of major data or headlines out during the session there isn't much to mention. Futures volumes has been largely tied with rolls. TU is -01⅜ at 102-27, while TY is -04 at 109-18
• TY recovered well off the intraday low of 108-21+ posted Wednesday, keeping the price clear of any test on 108-04 support. As such, markets are narrowing the gap with last week’s highs and may post a strong weekly candle at the close. Any further gains here would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 110-00, the Feb 7 high. For bears, recent weakness resulted in a break of 108-20+, the Feb 4 low, signalling the end of the correction between Jan 13 - Feb 7. Moving average studies highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 108-00, Jan 16 low, and expose 107-06, Jan 13 low and bear trigger.
• Last week saw the short-end outperform, with the 1-3yr tenors ending -6bps richer, while the 10yr closed 4.5bps richer at 4.431%, we have only traded below here once this year, back on Feb 5th when we reached a yield of 4.418%. The 2s10s closed the week little changed at 23.5bps, although this is10bps flatter ytd.
• Fed-dated OIS saw a dovish trading following the risk-off move, bringing forward the first full 25bp of easing to the July meeting from the September meeting, while the market is now pricing in 45bp of easing is vs 37bp priced on Thursday.
• There isn't much on the calendar tonight, with just Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index & Dallas Fed Manf. Activity