EU BASIC INDUSTRIES: Covestro (COVEGR Baa2/NR/NR): 4Q24 Results
Feb-26 11:11
Credit neutral. Underpinned by the imminent Adnoc takeover.
- Covestro reported revenue 3% below consensus.
- Adj. EBITDA missed by 7%. Margin fell to 5.7% in the quarter with lower volumes and pricing impacting.
- FCF of €250mn was ahead of €190mn expected. Reported leverage down to 2.7x from 3x QoQ.
- FY25 EBITDA guidance is in a wide corridor, but close to consensus at midpoint. Sales guidance was also in-line. FCF guidance of €0-300mn fell short of €340mn expectations despite capex €100mn lower than consensus.
- Webcast 14.00 GMT https://www.covestro.com/en/investors/reports-and-presentations/.
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UK: Proposal to move to T+1 settlement in October 2027
Jan-27 11:10
- There have been reports that Andrew Douglas, chair of the UK's Accelerated Settlements Taskforce (AST), has proposed a date of 11 October 2027 for the move to T+1. This is in line with the recommendation made by ESMA for the EU and a similar announcement by Switzerland last week. The final recommended date and implementation plan will be announced in February.
- Note that this was widely expected (as it makes sense to coordinate the move to T+1 with the EU and Switzerland) and the last report had recommended a move by the end of 2027.
- The last report from the AST was published in March (see here).
US TSY FUTURES: CFTC CoT Sees H Funds Trim Net Short, A Managers Add To Net Long
Jan-27 11:09
No particular cross-investor cohort themes within the latest CFTC CoT report:
- Leveraged funds added to existing net shorts in both TY & UXY futures, while they trimmed net shorts across the remainder of the curve. The net short cover element was more prominent in DV01 equivalent terms. They remain net short across all contracts.
- Meanwhile, asset managers added to existing net longs in TY, UXY and WN futures, while trimming net longs across the remainder of the curve. The net long setting element was slightly more prominent in DV01 equivalent terms. They remain net long across all contracts.
- Non-commercial investors added to net shorts in FV, TY & UXY futures, while adding to net longs in US futures and trimming net shorts in TU & WN futures. They remain net short in all contracts outside of US.
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
US: SOFR FIX - 27/01/25
Jan-27 11:09
SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME:
- 1M 4.31300
- 3M 4.29387
- 6M 4.24623
- 12M 4.17975
