POLAND: CPI Basket Revision May Lower 2025 Inflation Path

Below we summarise quick sell-side reactions to Polish CPI data released earlier this morning:

• ING note that there were no surprises in the M/M figure but the revision of the January print was significant. In their view, this will fuel differences in opinion among MPC members and may boost support for a more dovish stance than the Governor's.
• mBank write that the data confirmed that there was no spike in inflation at the beginning of the year.
• Pekao write that the annual re-weighting of the CPI basket resulted in a 0.4pp lower price growth, invalidating all inflation projections, including the NBP's. In their view, this shifts the inflation path for the entire 2025 lower by 0.4pp.
• PKO attribute the surprise to the notable revision of the January print as a result of the CPI basket re-weighting. They flag a significant decrease in the weighting of food prices, which returned to the level from before the inflation shock.
• The Polish Economic Institute write that the January print was revised lower due to a smaller weight of food and energy expenditures. These expenditures are still rising at pace but core inflation is slowing.