US DATA: CPI Core & Supercore Latest Trends Still Hot

Reuters reporting that Russian Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, Sergei Ryabkov, reiterated that Russia’s conditions for ending the war in Ukraine have not changed since Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined a proposal in June last year. 

• Ryabkov: “…the sooner the USA and the West understand that all of Putin’s conditions need to be fulfilled the sooner there will be a settlement… As for our dialogue with US on strategic stability, situation does not look promising as Putin said…”
• The comments come as Washington and Moscow maintain ambiguity on an acceptable ceasefire framework, particularly regarding any security guarantees for both Ukraine and Russia that could unlock talks.
• US President Donald Trump told the NY Post that he had spoken to Putin on the phone, noting the Russian president wants to see people “stop dying” in Ukraine.
• Putin’s conditions, which include Ukraine withdrawing troops from annexed territories and abandoning long-term NATO aspirations without offering concessions to Kyiv, were rejected by Ukraine and Western allies.
• Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, rejected reporting that he would unveil the Trump administration’s peace proposal at the Feb 14-16 Munich Security Conference.   
• Kellogg told the Post Trump is ready to double down on sanctions against Russia, noting that additional pressure could be applied on Russia’s oil production and exports.
• Kellogg added Trump’s approach is more pragmatic than former President Biden’s largely unconditional support for Kyiv, with Trump willing to exert greater leverage over Moscow.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told ITV: "If I had an understanding [America/Europe] will not abandon us… If there are security guarantees, we can then speak of an end to the 'hot phase' of the war.”

• "GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK: EUROPE MUST RESPOND TO TRADE RESTRICTIONS, WE ARE PREPARED FOR THIS" (RTRS)
• Worth noting nothing new on that Habeck headline, after stating last week that if Europe cannot convince President Trump, "then Europe will have to react as Canada and Mexico are prepared to do: with counter-tariffs".
• Perhaps separately, EURUSD has extended its pullback in the last few minutes to 1.0310 from the earlier 1.0337 highs in early European trade, amid a notable bid filtering through for the broader greenback. 1.0272, the Feb 04 low is the immediate support level of note.

• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. The recent pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Price has recently cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher confirms a resumption of the corrective bull cycle that started Jan 14. Sights are on 133.73, 50.0% of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg. First support is at 132.53, the 20-day EMA.
• A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play for now, signalling scope for a continuation higher near-term. Last week’s extension has reinforced current conditions. The contract has traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high, and breached 93.64, the 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. Sights are on the 94.75, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm support lies at 92.50, the 20-day EMA.