MEXICO: CPI Inflation Slightly Below Expectations In January

SONIA FIX - ICE/Bloomberg.

• TISONI1M 4.6866 -0.0165
• TISONI3M 4.5893 -0.0078
• TISONI6M 4.5269 -0.0070
• TISONI1Y 4.4361 -0.0076

Treasuries have sold off over the past hour as US desks join, lagging sharp downward pressure in Gilts after long end yields broke to fresh multi-decade high. CNN has more recently reported Trump is weighing an emergency declaration for new tariffs with TY futures mostly sideways since then. 

• Today’s 30Y supply can also weigh, but with the recent large steepening offering strong outright concession (WI yield currently ~40bps above last month’s auction high yield).
• Cash yields are 1-2bp higher, bear steepening with 2s10s setting new recent highs of 40.6bps.
• 10Y yields have recently seen a session high of 4.7014%, with focus on 4.7351%, the 2024 high.
• 30Y yields at 4.936% earlier hit fresh highs since Oct/Nov 2023.
• TYH5 trades at 108-03 (-02+) whilst cumulative volumes of 370k are reasonable but not particularly elevated.
• The earlier low of 108-01+ matched yesterday’s fresh cycle low, and sees attention on the round 108-00 before 107-19+ (both Fibo projections). Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend.
• Data: Headlined by weekly jobless claims brought forward a day early plus ADP employment.
• Fedspeak: Waller (0800ET), FOMC minutes (1400ET) – see STIR bullet.
• Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $22B 30Y re-open - 912810UE6 (1300ET)
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $64B 17W bill auction (1130ET)