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STIR: A Little Under 60bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through '25
BoE-dated OIS shows 57bp of cuts through year-end vs. ~58bp late Friday.
- SONIA futures are flat to -1.5.
- Weakness in wider core global FI markets has had a hawkish impact on GBP STIRs during the early rounds of ’25 trade.
- However, Bunds and Tsys have edged away from session lows, limiting any fresh hawkish moves this morning.
- Although it won’t be a market mover it is worth noting that the BCC’s latest survey has pointed to the lowest level of business confidence in 2 years.
- Final services PMI data is due this morning.
- Further out, Thursday's BoE DMP survey presents the highlight of this week's UK release schedule.
- Elsewhere, the latest S&P-KPMG-REC report on jobs (also due Thursday) will be eyed, with particular focus on hiring plans and the outlook for wages.
- BoE MPC member Breeden is also due to speak on Thursday.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Feb-25 | 4.534 | -16.6 |
Mar-25 | 4.503 | -19.7 |
May-25 | 4.390 | -31.1 |
Jun-25 | 4.352 | -34.9 |
Aug-25 | 4.256 | -44.5 |
Sep-25 | 4.228 | -47.3 |
Nov-25 | 4.163 | -53.7 |
Dec-25 | 4.132 | -56.8 |
USD: A steady start for the Dollar against G10s
- While US Yield are underpinned overall going into a very busy Week ahead, the Dollar, while showing mostly in the red against G10s, the Greenback is steady.
- The CAD leads and is up 0.36%, on report that Justin Trudeau could be set to resign, but looking at the USDCAD it has just reversed Yesterday rally to trade near Yesterday's low of 1.4384, printed a 1.4388 low so far.
- At the other end, the Yen is the worst performer, albeit by just 0.21%, after BoJ Ueda repeated that Rate moves will depend on Inflation and the Economy.
- While the USDJPY has rallied towards the 158.00 handle overnight, the cross sits some 20 pips off the 157.83 printed Overnight high going into the European session.
- The December high at 158.08 remains the initial key resistance, which was also its highest print since 17th July.
GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $2762.3 - High Nov 1
- RES 3: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12
- RES 1: $2665.3/2692.8 - High Jan 3 / High Dec 13
- PRICE: $2630.9 @ 07:25 GMT Jan 6
- SUP 1: $2596.2/2583.6 - Low Dec 30 / 19
- SUP 2: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
A bear threat in Gold remains present despite the latest recovery, The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. The first firm support to watch is $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, a resumption of gains would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high.
