CREDIT SUPPLY: ANZ Launches A$ Perp

• South Korea: South Korean equities saw an inflow of $38m Friday, but a significant outflow of $1.182b over the past five trading days. The 5-day average outflow is $236m, compared to the 20-day average outflow of $136m and the 100-day average inflow of $88m. Year-to-date, South Korea has had substantial inflows totaling $16.799b.
• Taiwan: Taiwan recorded an inflow of $522m Friday, despite an outflow of $2.211b over the past five trading days. The 5-day average outflow is $442m, compared to the 20-day average outflow of $753m and the 100-day average outflow of $200m. Year-to-date, Taiwan has experienced outflows totaling $11.470b.
• India: Indian equities had an inflow of $62m Thursday, with a net outflow of $1.479b over the past five trading days. The 5-day average outflow is $296m, compared to the 20-day average inflow of $24m and the 100-day average outflow of $48m. Year-to-date, India has seen inflows totaling $2.436b (up to August 8th).
• Indonesia: Indonesian equities recorded an inflow of $28m Friday, resulting in a net inflow of $70m over the past five trading days. The 5-day average outflow is $14m, which is lower than the 20-day average inflow of $15m and close to the 100-day average outflow of $10m. Year-to-date, Indonesia has had inflows totaling $138m.
• Thailand: Thai equities saw an inflow of $1m Friday, leading to a net inflow of $12m over the past five trading days. The 5-day average inflow is $2m, in line with the 20-day average of $0m, but better than the 100-day average outflow of $24m. Year-to-date, Thailand has experienced outflows amounting to $3.324b.
• Malaysia: Malaysian equities had an outflow of $30m Friday, resulting in a 5-day net outflow of $173m. The 5-day average outflow is $35m, which is worse than the 20-day average outflow of $3m and the 100-day average outflow of $1m. Year-to-date, Malaysia has experienced outflows totaling $39m.
• Philippines: The Philippines recorded an inflow of $2m Friday, but a net outflow of $29m over the past five trading days. The 5-day average outflow is $6m, compared to the 20-day average inflow of $1m and the 100-day average outflow of $8m. Year-to-date, the Philippines has seen outflows totaling $500m.

Oil was supported last week by improving risk appetite as US recession concerns abated and continued uncertainty over an Iranian retaliation to Israel’s strike on Hamas’ political leader in Tehran. Supply disruptions in Libya have also supported prices. The USD index fell 0.2%.

• WTI rose 1% to $76.98/bbl to be up 4.7% last week, above the 20-day EMA of $76.76. It has started today slightly lower at $76.89. It trended higher over Friday but did dip in both the European and US sessions before recovering to a high of $77.09. Despite last week’s gains, a bear threat remains. Moving above the 20-day EMA opens up $78.88 while initial support is at $71.67.
• Brent was up 0.7% to $79.73/bbl, approaching initial resistance at $79.97, 20-day EMA. Last week’s gain is seen as corrective given that the benchmark was flashing oversold. Initial support is at $74.96 with key support at $73.31.
• Gaza ceasefire talks are set to resume on Thursday with calls for Iran to delay any action until at least after that. In addition, risks have risen in Ukraine/Russia following Ukraine entering the neighbouring Russian province of Kursk.

ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM -0.5) are slightly cheaper after the US tsy 10-year yield finished the week down 5bps to 3.94%. It capped off a volatile week where the US 10-year traded a 35bps range, finishing back where it was just ahead of the non-farm payrolls report a week earlier that ignited market turmoil. The 2-year yield finished Friday slightly higher, resulting in the curve twist-flattening.

• Projected US rate cut pricing into year-end ended the week well off Monday's highs: Sep'24 cumulative -39bps (-54bps), Nov'24 cumulative -71bps (-96bps), Dec'24 -102bps (-128bps).
• This week's focus in the US will be PPI, CPI, Retail Sales, Home Sales and UofM Inflation Expectations data.
• Cash ACGBs are flat to 2bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 3bps wider at +12bps.
• Swap rates are flat to 1bp higher, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
• The bills strip is cheaper, with pricing flat to -3.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-3bps firmer across meetings. A cumulative 19bps of easing is priced by year-end, 9bps firmer than pre-RBA Decision levels last Tuesday.
• Today, RBA Deputy Governor Hauser speaks at 1200 AEST.
• Across the ditch, the RBNZ Policy Meeting is on Wednesday. 12 of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect no change, with 9 expecting a 25bp cut.