OIL: Crude Holding Onto Losses With Demand & Supply Outlooks Highly Uncertain

TYH5 is dealing at 108-21+, +0-06+ from NY closing levels, in today’s Asia-Pac session. TYH5 hit a high of 108-24. 

• On Sunday, Trump ordered an emergency 25% tariff on all Colombian goods entering the US.
• Subsequently, Bloomberg reported that the US will not levy threatened tariffs on Colombia after reaching a deal, the White House said.  The South American country’s government “agreed to all of President Trump’s terms, including the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States, including on U.S. military aircraft, without limitation or delay,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. “
• Ahead of a key earnings week, US stock futures are dealing lower but currently sit slightly above session cheaps. The S&P 500 is down 0.9% and the Nasdaq is down ~0.50%.
• Cash bonds are dealing 2-4bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session, with a flattening bias, after finishing Friday mildly stronger.
• The US Treasury will auction $69 billion of two-year notes and $70 billion of five-year debt later Monday.
• Focus this week is the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday.

• Asian currencies were mixed with Korea and Indonesia out and Chinese Lunar New Year holidays about to begin.
• With headlines that the President was being charged, and the tech sector challenged by DeepSeek, the won had a tough day losing -0.453%.
• Malaysia’s Ringgitt continued its period of lower volatility relative to regional peers, rising +0.073%.
• They Yen followed suit as investors begin to embrace the idea of higher rates.  The Yen gained +0.07%.
• China’s USD/CNY fixing printed at 7.1698 versus a Bloomberg consensus of 7.2451.

NZGBs closed 2bps richer, aligning with strengthening in cash US tsys in today’s Asia-Pac session. 

• Cash US tsys are dealing 1-4bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session, with a flattening bias, after finishing Friday mildly stronger.
• US stock futures are dealing lower ahead of key earnings week, with the S&P 500 down 0.8% and the Nasdaq down ~0.50%.
• “In a social media post on Sunday, Trump said he ordered an emergency 25% tariff on all Colombian goods coming into the US, which will be raised to 50% in a week. Oil, gold, coffee and flowers top the list of exports, according to Colombia’s tax authorities.” (per BBG)
• The US Treasury will auction $69 billion of two-year notes and $70 billion of five-year debt later Monday.
• Focus this week is the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday.
• Swap rates closed 2bps lower after a subdued session given Auckland Anniversary and Australia Day holidays.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed. 47bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 109bps by November 2025.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Filled Jobs.
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$200mn of the 1.50% May-31 bond, NZ$200mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond and NZ$100mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.