COMMODITIES: Crude Remains Under Pressure, Spot Gold Pares Losses
- WTI is trading lower today and was largely unmoved by the Fed’s decision to hold rates unchanged. Stronger focus is on the US inventory builds.
- WTI Mar 25 is down by 1.1% at $72.9/bbl.
- The move lower in WTI futures this week has resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA, turning attention to support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.24. A clear break of this average would open $68.05, the Dec 20 low.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has pared losses as Fed Chairman Powell says in his press conference that the removal of the reference to inflation progress wasn’t meant to send any signal.
- The yellow metal is currently down by 0.3% at $2,756/oz.
- A bull cycle in gold is still in play, with sights on $2,790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high.
- On the downside, the first key support to watch is $2,678.1, the 50-day EMA.
- Silver has outperformed today, with the precious metal rebounding by 1.3% to $30.8/oz, leaving the gold-silver ratio 2.5% below the 12-month high reached earlier this week.
- For silver, a bear cycle remains in play and recent gains are considered corrective. However, the latest move higher does suggest scope for a continuation near-term, with key resistance seen at $32.338, the Dec 12 high.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EURJPY TECHS: Has Cleared All Key Retracement Points
- RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31
- RES 3: 166.18 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 1: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 163.08 @ 16:11 GMT Dec 30
- SUP 1: 162.82 Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 162.22/159.82 20-day EMA / Low Dec 18
- SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
- SUP 4: 157.87 Low Dec 09
EUR/JPY faded into the European close Monday, but a bullish S/T condition remains intact for now. The cross is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Price has breached all the relevant Fibonacci retracement points of the bear leg between Oct 31 - Dec 3. Sights are on 165.04, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would open 166.69, the Oct 31 high and the next major resistance. Initial firm support lies at 162.22, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Fading Underlying Support
Decent SOFR & Treasury option flow leaned towards low delta put structures Monday, fading the bounce in underlying futures to mid-December levels. Projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain momentum vs. this morning, levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -14.6bp (-13.6bp), May'25 -20.6bp (-19.5bp), Jun'25 -30.3bp (-28.8bp).
- SOFR Options
- Update, over +18,000 SFRZ5 95.00 puts 8.0 vs. 96.065/0.10%
- +2,500 SFRJ5/SFRM5 95.50/95.62/95.75 put fly strip, 5.25
- +2,500 SFRF5 95.75 puts 1.25 vs. 95.805/.05%
- Block, 15,000 SFRM5 96.125/96.62 call spds 4.5 over SFRM5 95.56 puts vs. 95.945/0.36%
- +6,000 SFRZ5 95.00 puts, 8.0 vs. 96.065/0.10%
- -3,000 2QG5 95.87/96.00/96.12 put trees 4.0, 2 legs over ref 96.025
- over +34,200 0QM5 96.37/97.00 call spds 6.5 over 95.37/95.62 put spds ref 96.02
- 3,800 SFRK5 96.06/96.25 call spds ref 95.945
- 2,500 SFRF5 95.75/95.87/96.00/96.12 call condors ref 95.825
- 2,500 0QH5 95.62 puts ref 96.015
- Treasury Options
- -10,000 TYH5 109 straddles, 209-211 ref 108-30.5
- 1,000 TYG5 106/107 4x3 put spds ref 108-12
- +10,000 wk2 TY 107/108 put spds, 8
- +5,000 wk3 FV 106.75 calls 2 over FVG5 107 calls vs. 106-11/0.05%
- 1,200 FVH5 105/107.5 strangles ref 106-08
- 3,800 Wednesday wkly 30Y 113/113.5 put spds
- 1,200 TYG5 107/108.25 put spds ref 108-19
USDJPY TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
- RES 1: 158.08 High Dec 26
- PRICE: 157.06 @ 16:10 GMT Dec 30
- SUP 1: 155.89/155.01 High Nov 20 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 153.11/150.90 50-day EMA / Low Dec 10
- SUP 3: 149.37 Low Dec 06
- SUP 4: 148.65 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger
Prices slipped Monday, but an over-arching bullish condition remains. The breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has paved the way for a move towards 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 155.01, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
