COMMODITIES: Crude Rises Amid Mid-East Tensions, Gold Retreats From Record High

• RES 4: 0.8471 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger   
• RES 2: 0.8424 50.0% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8407 High Jan 9 
• PRICE: 0.8386 @ 19:28 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 0.8315/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8 
• SUP 2: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
• SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support

EURGBP traded sharply higher last week. The cross has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8311, and cleared the December highs. This undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Note too that 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has also been cleared. This opens 0.8424, a Fibonacci retracement. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8315.

• RES 4: 1.2672 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2607 High Dec 30     
• RES 2: 1.2533/2576 20-day EMA / High Jan 7 
• RES 1: 1.2367 High Jan 9 
• PRICE: 1.2208 @ 19:13 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 2023
• SUP 2: 1.2138 Low Nov 2 ‘23 
• SUP 3: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing  
• SUP 4:  1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support    

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and last week’s sell-off reinforces the bear trend - the break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The move down also marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2187 next, the Nov 10 2023 low. Initial resistance is at 1.2367, the Jan 9 high.

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 3: 1.0513 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
• RES 1: 1.0358 High Jan 8
• PRICE: 1.0239 @ 18:56 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 1.0215 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 1.0201 61.8% of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0151 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing    

The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and recent short-term gains have proved to be a correction. Friday’s move lower resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and mark an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0201 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Resistance to watch is 1.0458, the Dec 30 high.