COMMODITIES: Crude Rises, Gold Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• -40,000 0QZ5 97.00/98.00 call spds 8.0 to 8.25 vs. 96.08/0.14% (unwind of buys from Dec 26-Jan 7 from 9.0 to 10.0 vs. 95.905 to 96.005)

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 6   
• RES 3: 1.0594 Dec 9 ‘24
• RES 2: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.0435/42 50-day EMA / High Feb 5 
• PRICE: 1.0307 @ 19:32 GMT Feb 10 
• SUP 1: 1.0272/0141 Low Feb 4 / 3 and the bear trigger., 
• SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0031 2.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing 
• SUP 4: 0.9947 76.4% of the Sep 28 ‘22 - Jul 18 ’23 bull leg 

EURUSD continues to trade below last week’s highs. Attention is on a bullish candle formation on Feb 3 - a hammer - that signals a possible reversal. However, additional reinforcing price evidence is required to signal a turn in the trend. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. 1.0435, the 50-day EMA, marks a key resistance. A clear break of it would be a bullish development. The bear trigger is 1.0141, the Feb 3 low.

• RES 4: 110-25   High Dec 12
• RES 3: 110-19   76.4% retracement of the Dec 6  - Jan 13 bear leg    
• RES 2: 110-14   High Dec 14
• RES 1: 110-00   High Feb 7
• PRICE:‌‌ 109-08 @ 19:17 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: 108-20+ Low Feb 4   
• SUP 2: 108-06/107-06 Low Jan 23 / 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 106-11   2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing  

A bull phase in Treasury futures remains in play and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA of 109-10+. This highlights potential for a stronger reversal and sights are on a climb above the 110-00 handle. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is unchanged at 108-20+, the Feb 4 low. Clearance of it would signal a reversal and the end of the corrective cycle.