RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Wind Forecast

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11     
• RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2   
• RES 1: 119.81 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 118.86 @ Close Jan 27 
• SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger          
• SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

The latest rally in BTP futures highlights a corrective phase. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next firm resistance at 119.81, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the 50-day average would strengthen a bullish condition. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish and the pullback from Wednesday’s high may be an early reversal signal. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8 
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 164.08 High Jan 24
• PRICE: 162.91 @ 07:10 GMT Jan 27 
• SUP 1: 160.96/159.73 Low Jan 21 / 17 and key short-term support     
• SUP 2: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
• SUP 4: 158.24 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle

EURJPY is trading closer to its recent highs. The latest recovery resulted in breach of resistance at 162.89, the Jan 15 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights scope for an extension higher near term, towards key resistance at 164.90, the Dec 30 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 159.73, the Jan 17 low. A reversal lower and a break of this level would reinstate the recent bearish threat.

Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:

• Fitch affirmed {NE} the Netherlands at AAA; Outlook Stable
• Moody's upgraded {AR} Argentina to Caa3; outlook positive
• Morningstar DBRS confirmed {BE} Belgium at AA, Stable Trend
• Scope Ratings affirmed {BE} Belgium at AA-; Outlook Negative