RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Wind Forecast 20 March 2025

• RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number   
• RES 3: $2996.9 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $2942.7 - High Feb 11 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: $2913.8 @ 07:19 GMT Feb 18
• SUP 1: $2864.2 - Low Feb 12  
• SUP 2: $2833.2 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: $2807.3 - Low Feb 4  
• SUP 4: $2756.5 - 50-day EMA

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to hold on to the bulk of its recent gains. Fresh highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2833.2, the 20-day EMA.

• It is another very busy overnight session for Bund, decent traded volumes and already a 44 ticks range, looking where futures is, this will mean that the 10yr Yield will be quoted above 2.50% post Cash open.
• Weaker JGB 20yr Auction, Ukraine Defence spending talks, Tariffs risks, Hawkish Fed Waller "Latest Data supports rates on Hold" have helped keep the pressure on Core Govies.
• The small beat in the UK data had not impact in Bund, on the contrary it is finding a small base, cash flow led buying.
• Next immediate support in Bund is at 131.62, followed by 131.00.
• Resistance moves down to 132.59 20-day EMA.
• It is another light day on the Data front with the main focus on Friday's PMIs this week.
• Today sees, German ZEW and for North America, the Canadian CPI.
• SUPPLY: UK £1.75bn 2063 (Equates to 27.5k Gilt) should weigh, Germany €4.5bn Schatz (equates to 47.9k Schatz) will weigh, Finland 5s, 10s (won't impact Bund).
• SPEAKERS: ECB Holzmann, Cipolonne (at MNI), BoE Bailey, Fed Daly, Barr.

• Private regular AWE a touch lower than expected, whole economy regular AWE broadly in line, whole economy inc bonus marginally higher than exp.
• PAYE payrolls revised significantly (again). +20.7k in Jan and -13.9k in Dec (rather than -47k in Dec)
• LFS unemployment rate at 4.4% (rounded). BOE looked for 4.45%, consensus 4.5% (rounded).
• More to follow.