EM CEEMEA CREDIT: CZGB: Mar cons conf out, positive read across for banks

• RES 4: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
• RES 3: 1.4814 High Apr 2003 
• RES 2: 1.4503/1.4793 High Fb 4 / 3 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.4380 High Feb 10     
• PRICE: 1.4187 @ 08:03 GMT Feb 19
• SUP 1: 1.4107 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
• SUP 3: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24

USDCAD is trading closer to recent lows. The pair has cleared key support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. This strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension of the current bear cycle - a correction. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.4107, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.4380, the Feb 10 high. A move above this hurdle would highlight an early bullish reversal signal.

Gilts soften on a combination of the mixed UK CPI data (detailed elsewhere) and downtick in core global FI markets since yesterday’s close.

• Futures as low as 92.23.
• Initial support at the 12 Feb base (92.31) is broken. An extension would shift focus to the 29 Jan low (91.96), which protects more meaningful support at the 24 Jan low (91.52)
• Yields 2-3bp higher across the curve, 10-Year spread vs. Bunds ~1bp wider at ~207.5bp.
• Looking ahead, the DMO will come to market with GBP4.25bln of the 4.375% Mar-28 gilt this morning.
• Elsewhere, the DMO has announced the launch of a new index-linked gilt maturing on 22 September 2049. The transaction is set to take place in the week commencing 10 March 2025, subject to demand and market conditions.

• While the Cash Estoxx (SX5E) hasn't quite managed to test Yesterday's record printed high at 5544.00, it is another strong start for the Banking index .
• SX7E spiked to a new ~14yrs high on the open (best since April 2011), and close to a 30% gain from the December low.
• Some investors will look at the Psychological 180.00 level next, but upside target is at 181.50, the April 2011 high.