PLN: CZK: Staying Above 6.0
PLN/CZK hovers above the 6.00 threshold despite today's downtick. The recent spell of consolidation ...
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GERMANY: Bundesbank Sees No Trend Change After Recently Stronger Employment
The Bundesbank sees the German economy remaining weak overall in Q4, with an intermediate rise in employment not able to counter the overall negative trend, mirroring MNI's view ('Labour Market Recovered Slightly, Sentiment Suggests Softening' - Jan 3). On inflation, it sees some softening in the persistent services category this year. Key excerpts below:
- "Overall employment recently developed more favorably than expected in the December forecast for Germany, despite job losses in the manufacturing sector. However, no positive trend reversal for the future can be derived from the comparatively pleasing employment trend of the last two months."
- "Inflation is likely to remain high at the start of the year. The further increase in the CO₂ price on fossil fuels as well as increases in the price of the Deutschlandticket and private health insurance will contribute to this. The inflation rate is likely to ease again in the following months. The recent very sharp rise in the price of services will fall noticeably. However, it will still remain well above its longer-term average."
- "Industrial production probably remained on a downward trend in the fourth quarter."
- "The basic trend in demand for German industrial goods stabilized somewhat."
US TSY FUTURES: Long Setting In FV Through UXY Noted Over Last Two Sessions
Net long setting across TY, UXY and US futures dominated between Friday and Tuesday settlements, as markets remained sensitive to headlines surrounding Trump’s tariff plans.
- Net long cover in TU futures provided the only other net positioning move of note.
| 21-Jan-25 | 17-Jan-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,155,072 | 4,183,844 | -28,772 | -1,090,113 |
FV | 6,158,658 | 6,181,136 | -22,478 | -935,950 |
TY | 4,743,305 | 4,694,593 | +48,712 | +3,126,548 |
UXY | 2,270,826 | 2,266,718 | +4,108 | +359,336 |
US | 1,917,054 | 1,908,965 | +8,089 | +1,010,919 |
WN | 1,792,716 | 1,794,375 | -1,659 | -313,362 |
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| Total | +8,000 | +2,157,378 |
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Latest Euribor upside Option, Looking for ECB cuts
More upside structures in Euribor, looking at back to back cuts from the ECB into June, but also deeper cut play into Year end have been noted in the past couple of Weeks.
- ERJ5 97.75/97.875/98.00c fly, bought for 2.5 in 3.9k.
- ERM5 98.00/98.25cs, bought for 2.75 in 3.4k.
