FINANCIALS: Deutsche Bank
*IPT: DEUTSCHE BANK 1B WNG 6NC5 SNP MS+160 AREA - bbg...
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MNI: FRANCE DEC HICP +0.2% M/M, +1.8% Y/Y
- MNI: FRANCE DEC HICP +0.2% M/M, +1.8% Y/Y
- MNI: FRANCE DEC CPI +0.2% M/M, +1.3% Y/Y
STIR: A Little Over 55bp OF BoE Cuts Priced Through '25
GBP STIRs consolidate/marginally extend on yesterday’s hawkish move.
- BoE-dated OIS & SONIA futures little changed to a touch more hawkish vs. settlement, with 17bp of cuts priced for February, 20.5bp of cuts priced through March and 56bp showing through year-end.
- We still look for cuts in February and May, which leaves the market-implied cutting cycle looking a little flat in our view.
- Spill over from European inflation data eyed this morning.
- Further out, Thursday’s schedule will receive much of this week’s domestic focus, with the BoE DMP survey, S&P-KPMG-REC report on jobs and comments from BoE MPC member Breeden due that day.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Feb-25 | 4.530 | -17.0 |
Mar-25 | 4.493 | -20.7 |
May-25 | 4.380 | -32.0 |
Jun-25 | 4.344 | -35.6 |
Aug-25 | 4.252 | -44.8 |
Sep-25 | 4.225 | -47.5 |
Nov-25 | 4.168 | -53.2 |
Dec-25 | 4.141 | -55.9 |
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bear Threat Still Present For Now
- RES 4: 6194.19 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
- RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 1: 6068.25/6107.50 High Jan 6 / High Dec 26
- PRICE: 6013.50 @ 07:28 GMT Jan 7
- SUP 1: 5911.25/5866.00 Low Jan 3 / Dec 20
- SUP 2: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present despite the most recent gains. The reversal lower from the Dec 26 high, highlights the end of the Dec 20 - 26 correction. Attention is on 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key S/T support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. A breach of this hurdle would highlight a bull reversal and open key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.
