USD: Dollar Marginally Higher As Trump Eyes April 2 Auto Tariffs
The dollar edges very marginally higher (up less than 0.1%) with equities very slightly lower following the Bloomberg headline that quotes President Trump as saying new auto tariffs may come "on, around" April 2.
- The lack of reaction suggests both that such threats are largely priced in, but also that the tariffs are not imminent and thihngs could change in the interim.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.2607 High Dec 30
- RES 3: 1.2597 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.2433 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.2322 High Jan 10
- PRICE: 1.2231@ 19:58 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10
- SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2433, the 20-day EMA.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 109-21+ 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 108-17+/109-06 20-day EMA / High Dec 31
- PRICE: 108-09 @ 19:44 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: 107-06 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The trend condition in Treasury futures remains bearish and today’s gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low earlier this week, reinforced a bearish theme. Sights are on 107-04 next, the Apr 25 ‘24 low (cont) and key support. Note too that Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 108-17+, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Pierces Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 2: 6068.25/6107.50 High Jan 6 / High Dec 26
- RES 1: 6035.50 61.8% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg
- PRICE: 5996.25 @ 19:38 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: 5809.00 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 3: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 12 ‘24
A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present. However, today’s gains have resulted in a print above resistance at 5987.43, the 50-day EMA. The average marks an important short-term pivot level and a clear break of it would signal a possible reversal. This would open 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
