USD: Dollar Marginally Higher As Trump Eyes April 2 Auto Tariffs

• RES 4: 1.2607 High Dec 30
• RES 3: 1.2597 50-day EMA     
• RES 2: 1.2433 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.2322 High Jan 10 
• PRICE: 1.2231@ 19:58 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 
• SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number      

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2433, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: 110-25   High Dec 12   
• RES 2: 109-21+ 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 108-17+/109-06 20-day EMA / High Dec 31 
• PRICE:‌‌ 108-09 @ 19:44 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 107-06   Low Jan 13   
• SUP 2: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support  
• SUP 3: 107-00   Round number support
• SUP 4: 106-11   2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing  

The trend condition in Treasury futures remains bearish and today’s gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low earlier this week, reinforced a bearish theme. Sights are on 107-04 next, the Apr 25 ‘24 low (cont) and key support. Note too that Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 108-17+, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16  
• RES 2: 6068.25/6107.50 High Jan 6 / High Dec 26 
• RES 1: 6035.50 61.8% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg           
• PRICE: 5996.25 @ 19:38 GMT Jan 15 
• SUP 1: 5809.00 Low Jan 13        
• SUP 2: 5784.00 Low Nov 4 
• SUP 3: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 12 ‘24

A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present. However, today’s gains have resulted in a print above resistance at 5987.43, the 50-day EMA. The average marks an important short-term pivot level and a clear break of it would signal a possible reversal. This would open 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.