POLAND: Domanski Reiterates There Are No Plans For New Property Taxes
* Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski reiterated that the government is not planning to introduce an...
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EQUITIES: EU Cash opening calls
Estox 50: -0.31%, Dax: -0.32%, CAC: -0.38%, FTSE -0.14%, SMI -0.01%.
STIR: Over 80bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through Year-End, Cycle Extreme Holds
Modest dovish moves in GBP STIRs as core global FI firms alongside a downtick in U.S. equity futures.
- Tech earnings and trade war worries weigh on e-minis.
- BoE-dated OIS showing ~83bp of cuts through ’25 vs. ~81.5bp late yesterday.
- Dovish cycle extremes of ~84bp held at the open.
- 24bp of cuts priced for this week’s meeting, with ~48bp priced through May.
- SONIA futures last little changed to +2.0.
- It would be a huge surprise if tomorrow's MPC decision delivered anything other than a 25bp rate cut.
- The bar is also high for forward guidance to be meaningfully tweaked.
- We would be surprised if the vote split wasn’t 8-1, although there are risks here.
- Our full preview of the decision can be found here.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Feb-25 | 4.466 | -23.8 |
Mar-25 | 4.406 | -29.8 |
May-25 | 4.223 | -48.1 |
Jun-25 | 4.139 | -56.6 |
Aug-25 | 4.014 | -69.0 |
Sep-25 | 3.975 | -72.9 |
Nov-25 | 3.899 | -80.5 |
Dec-25 | 3.873 | -83.1 |
SWEDEN: Jan Services PMI Details Not Overly Strong
The January services PMI just about remained in expansionary territory at 50.1 (vs 51.2 prior). The series is reasonably volatile month-to-month, but has generally trended higher alongside the Economic Tendency Indicator’s services sentiment series since the start of 2024.
- This contrasts with the manufacturing PMI, which has diverged from the Economic Tendency Indicator’s manufacturing sentiment series in recent months.
- The composite PMI was 50.9 (vs 51.5 prior), the third consecutive month in expansionary territory.
- The details of the services release were not overly strong. Production was 50.1 (vs 50.0 prior), while new orders dipped to 49.5 (vs 50.1 prior). The employment index softened to 45.6 (vs 47.7 prior).
- Meanwhile, supplier input prices rose notably to 65.5 (vs 61.9 prior), the highest since August 2023.
