SOUTH KOREA: DPK Early Favourites For Presidency After Yoon's Impeachment

A spox for the South Korean National Election Commission (NEC) says that acting President Han Duck-soo and the head of the NEC have "agreed that 3 June is a good date for a presidential election" but that that date "is not yet final". A snap presidential election is required within 60 days following the Constitutional Court's unanimous decision earlier today to uphold the impeachment of Yoon Suk-yeol after his short-lived imposition of martial law in Dec 2024. As we noted earlier (see 'SOUTH KOREA: Yoon Impeachment Upheld, Election Within 60 Days', 0239BST, and 'SOUTH KOREA: Country Wrap:  Yoon Impeached', 0636BST) 3 June has for some time been viewed as the most likely date for a poll should the Court back Yoon's removal from office.

• Hypothetical presidential polling may not be hugely useful at present, with the conservative People Power Party (PPP) - Yoon's former party - yet to select a candidate. As noted earlier, opposition liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) leader Lee Jae-myung holds a sizeable lead in hypothetical scenario polling, bolstered by his widespread name recognition (he was the defeated DPK candidate in the 2022 presidential election) and benefiting from a recovery in support for the DPK over the past two months. While he is not the official DPK candidate yet, it is all but assured he will be nominated in due course.
• Protests from both pro- and anti-Yoon camps are set to continue this weekend, but notably the main pro-Yoon 'Save Korea' group has said the court's decision must be respected and cancelled its rally on 5 April, limiting the prospect of any widespread unrest. 

Chart 1. Legislative Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: EveryResearch, Researchview, KSOI, KOPRA, Flower Research, Realmeter, Gallup, Media Research, NBS, Gongjung, Jowon C&I, Win G, Media Tomato, Ace Research, Hangil Research, MNI