EM CEEMEA CREDIT: DPWDU: Strong FY24 results and pos for spreads

• RES 4: 118.310 High Dec 20          
• RES 3: 118.27 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg    
• RES 2: 118.100 High Jan 2   
• RES 1: 117.980 High Jan 3 / 5                              
• PRICE: 117.780 @ 08:06 GMT Feb 11  
• SUP 1: 117.583 50-day EMA                 
• SUP 2: 117.373 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24  
• SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and a key support       

Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Last week’s climb reinforces current bullish conditions. The contract has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear breach of 117.880, 50.0% of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg, would signal scope for an extension towards 118.258, the 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg. Initial support to watch lies at 117.373, the 20-day EMA.           

• RES 4: 134.94 High Dec 17            
• RES 3: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
• RES 2: 134.29 High Dec 20
• RES 1: 133.73 50.0% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg                 
• PRICE: 133.24 @ 08:03 GMT Feb 11 
• SUP 1: 132.53 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 16 / 24            
• SUP 3: 131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)     

Bund futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. The recent pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Price has recently cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher confirms a resumption of the corrective bull cycle that started Jan 14. Sights are on 133.73, a Fibonacci retracement point. Firm short-term support has been defined at 131.00, the Jan 16 / 24 low.

2.50% Dec-31 EU-bond

• Guidance: MS + 39bps area
• Size: E6bln WNG (MNI expected E4-6bln)
• ISIN: EU000A3L1DJ0

3.25% Feb-50 Green EU-bond

• Guidance: MS + 110bps area
• Size: E5bln WNG (MNI expected E4-6bln)
• ISIN: EU000A3K4EU0

For both

• Settlement: 18 February 2025 (T+5)
• JLMs: Citi / DB / HSBC / Morgan Stanley (B&D/DM) / Societe Generale
• Timing: Books open, today's business