EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Pierces Support
- RES 4: 6205.38 0.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 24 - Feb 3 price swing
- RES 3: 6200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 1: 6069.41/6166.50 20-day EMA / High Jan 24
- PRICE: 5980.00 @ 14:35 GMT Feb 26
- SUP 1: 5924.00 Low Feb 25
- SUP 2: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5842.50 Low Jan 14
- SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a reversal trigger
The latest move down in S&P E-Minis appears corrective, however, price has breached support at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. This exposed a key support at 5935.50, the Feb 3 low, that was pierced on Tuesday. A clear break of it would allow for a deeper retracement. MA studies are in a bull-mode condition that suggests the trend direction remains up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high.
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SX5E (21st Mar) 4750/4250ps 1x2, bought for 9.7 in 4k.
GILTS: Rally Fades As E-minis Recover From Lows
Gilts happy to consolidate within the range set during London morning trade
- Futures +37 at 92.28 vs. session highs of 92.68.
- Friday’s high was pierced but Fibonacci resistance (92.75) is untouched. Bulls need to break the latter to pose a greater threat to the bearish trend.
- Yields now 2-4bp lower on the day, 3-4bp off session lows.
- BoE-dated OIS shows 71bp of cuts through year-end. vs. ~66bp late Friday and 73bp at one point today.
- SONIA futures flat to +7.0.
- Long-dated BoE APF sale due shortly.
- After that, eyes will be on the DMO gilt tender announcement scheduled for tomorrow morning (07:30).
- A reminder that the DMO is looking to hold a tender of a sub-5-Year gilt on Thursday. We believe that the 0.125% Jan-26 gilt is the most likely candidate for issuance via that tender and pencil in a GBP1.0-2.0bln size for the transaction (greater colour surrounding our thoughts can be found in an earlier bullet).
EQUITIES: All the attention turns to the US Cash Open
All the attention will likely be on the Equity Cash open now, Friday's low in the NDX was at 21,709.06.
The European Tech Index (SX8P) is still down 4.47%, and NVIDIA is down 12% pre Market.
- Calls: SPX: 5,973.5 (-2.1%); DJIA: 44,087 (-0.8%/-338pts); NDX: 21,021.1 (-3.5%).
