EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Strong Bounce Off Lows
- RES 4: 6205.38 0.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 24 - Feb 3 price swing
- RES 3: 6200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 1: 6166.50 High Jan 24
- PRICE: 6135.50 @ 07:46 GMT Feb 21
- SUP 1: 6075.54 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6014.00/5935.50 Low Feb 10 / 3
- SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5842.50 Low Jan 14
S&P E-Minis have faded sharply off intraday highs Thursday, but remain firm and hold the bulk of the recent phase of strength. Attention remains on resistance at 6162.25, the Jan 24 high. Clearance of this level would expose the key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. A move above this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend. On the downside, initial key support has been defined at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. A break would highlight a bearish development.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6331 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6302 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.6262 @ 07:40 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 0.6131 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.5994 1.618proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair has recently breached 0.6179, Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too. A resumption of the downtrend would open 0.6100. The next resistance to watch is 0.6331, the 50-day EMA.
STIR: Just Under 65bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through Year-End, Reeves Due
GBP STIRs little changed to a touch more hawkish at the open, with core global FI markets below yesterday’s highs and Bund futures off their early London peak.
- BoE-dated OIS flat to 1bp more hawkish across ’25 contracts.
- SONIA futures flat to -1.5.
- UK Chancellor Reeves is currently speaking on BBG TV, nothing to move markets thus far, as she reemphasises the government’s strapline surrounding driving economic growth and the need to stick to the fiscal rules.
- She will speak to CEOs later in the day.
- PSNB was higher than expected in Dec.
- Little else of note on the UK calendar today.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Feb-25 | 4.477 | -22.3 |
Mar-25 | 4.433 | -26.7 |
May-25 | 4.297 | -40.3 |
Jun-25 | 4.244 | -45.6 |
Aug-25 | 4.155 | -54.5 |
Sep-25 | 4.130 | -57.0 |
Nov-25 | 4.079 | -62.1 |
Dec-25 | 4.062 | -63.8 |
