EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Downtrend
- RES 4: 5878.53 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 5757.95 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 5694.75 High Apr 1
- PRICE: 5618.00 @ 14:23 BST Apr 2
- SUP 1: 5559.75/33.75 Low Mar 13 and the bear trigger / Low Mar 31
- SUP 2: 5500.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
S&P E-Minis maintain a softer tone. Sights are on key support and the bear trigger at 5559.75, the Mar 13 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Feb 19, and open 5483.30, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high.
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US TSYS: Natixis Look For Long End Vol. Around Current Levels & Rally In 2s
Natixis believe that “as long as the market does not anticipate the Fed’s next move is a hike or anticipate a recession, the long end of the U.S. curve should hover around our year-end forecast at 4.50% (with some volatility). Contradicting forces around the supply and demand dynamics should maintain decent support for term premium while preventing the eruption predicted by bond vigilantes”.
- They also note that “at the same time, the short end of the curve has room to rally more. Market repricing for the Fed outlook might only be starting. We expect 2-Year Tsy yields will reach 3.85% at the end of the year”.
BUNDS: Closinfg the support Gap
Euribor strip takes another leg lower as Bund look to close the 131.84 gap, printed a 131.85 low.
- ERU5, ERZ5 and ERH6 are all sold outright in over 5k, through new lows.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Mar04 $1.0300(E1.0bln), $1.0375-85(E1.3bln), $1.0520-30(E1.9bln); Mar05 $1.0294-10(E1.6bln); Mar06 $1.0400-10(E1.7bln), $1.0500(E1.3bln)
- USD/JPY: Mar05 Y151.00-10($1.0bln), Y151.85-00($1.0bln)
- GBP/USD: Mar05 $1.2500-20(Gbp1.1bln)
- EUR/JPY: Mar05 Y161.75(E1.2bln)
- AUD/USD: Mar04 $0.6335(A$1.2bln); Mar05 $0.6350(A$1.3bln)
- USD/CAD: Mar04 C$1.4315-25($1.2bln); Mar05 C$1.4495-00($1.9bln)
- USD/CNY: Mar06 Cny7.2000($1.3bln)
