EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Downtrend

Natixis believe that “as long as the market does not anticipate the Fed’s next move is a hike or anticipate a recession, the long end of the U.S. curve should hover around our year-end forecast at 4.50% (with some volatility). Contradicting forces around the supply and demand dynamics should maintain decent support for term premium while preventing the eruption predicted by bond vigilantes”.

• They also note that “at the same time, the short end of the curve has room to rally more. Market repricing for the Fed outlook might only be starting. We expect 2-Year Tsy yields will reach 3.85% at the end of the year”.

Euribor strip takes another leg lower as Bund look to close the 131.84 gap, printed a 131.85 low.

• ERU5, ERZ5 and ERH6 are all sold outright in over 5k, through new lows.

• EUR/USD: Mar04 $1.0300(E1.0bln), $1.0375-85(E1.3bln), $1.0520-30(E1.9bln); Mar05 $1.0294-10(E1.6bln); Mar06 $1.0400-10(E1.7bln), $1.0500(E1.3bln)
• USD/JPY: Mar05 Y151.00-10($1.0bln), Y151.85-00($1.0bln)
• GBP/USD: Mar05 $1.2500-20(Gbp1.1bln)
• EUR/JPY: Mar05 Y161.75(E1.2bln)
• AUD/USD: Mar04 $0.6335(A$1.2bln); Mar05 $0.6350(A$1.3bln)
• USD/CAD: Mar04 C$1.4315-25($1.2bln); Mar05 C$1.4495-00($1.9bln)
• USD/CNY: Mar06 Cny7.2000($1.3bln)