EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 5906.75 High Mar 6
- RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and the reversal trigger
- RES 2: 5686.31 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 5479.72 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 5326.25 @ 14:31 BST Apr 17
- SUP 1: 5098.16 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
- SUP 2: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 4663.75 1.764 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
A reversal higher in S&P E-Minis on Apr 9 highlights the start of a corrective cycle. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and the move higher is allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial resistance to watch is 5479.72, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 5686.31. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4832.00, the Apr 7 low. A break of this level would resume the M/T downtrend.
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US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: Large Jun'25 10Y Volatility Buying
- +15,000 TYM5 107.5/113.5 strangles, 35 vs. 110-18.5/0.05% at 0917:53ET
- Additionally, +9,000 TYM5 108/113 strangles, 45 vs. 110-19/0.05% on screen
UK: BOE MNI Instant Answer questions for March 2025 meet
The BOE policy decision is due March 20, with the answers to below questions published at midday:
1. Was the Bank Rate changed, and if so by how much?
2. Number of members voting for cut of 50bp or greater?
3. Number of members voting for 25bp cut?
4. Number of members voting for unchanged rate?
NB: On questions 2-4 we will name the dissenters (and the magnitude of dissent)
5. Did the MPC drop reference to a “gradual approach” to removing “policy restraint being appropriate” from their Statement?
6. In the guidance, alongside a “gradual” approach to removing policy restraint, did the MPC use “careful”?
7. Did the MPC again say Bank Rate is likely to “remain restrictive for sufficiently long”?
8. Did the MPC again say it will “decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting”?
9. Did the MPC leave its guidance paragraph materially unchanged versus the February policy statement?
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening calls
US Cash opening calls, set for a steady open, SPX should be close to Yesterday's mid range, as the Emini also trades at Yesterday's mid pre Cash open.
- Calls: SPX: 5,659.3 (-0.3%); DJIA: 41,799 (-0.1%/-43pts); NDX: 19,708.3 (-0.5%).
