EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Retracement Mode

• As noted in the Bund comment there's very little change intially across multi assets going into the European session.
• The early push lower is Equities, is supporting Core Govies, as Trump look for tougher Chips control over China, Dutch ASML is falling pre Open.
• The Dollar was flat overnight against all G10s, the EUR was the small winner, albeit by just 0.09%, and the NOK was down 0.04%, in a sense, a flat Dollar.
• Since the early Risk Off tone, JPY is now just up 0.11%, and the NOK is still down 0.06%, but the push higher in Bond futures and in turn a dip in Yield is putting pressure on the USDJPY, next support is seen a little further out, down to 148.85 Low Feb 24.
• The Yen is now seeing broader bid on the Risk Off tone.

• RES 4: 6205.38 0.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 24 - Feb 3 price swing     
• RES 3: 6200.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
• RES 1: 6079.87/6166.50 20-day EMA / High Jan 24                 
• PRICE: 6001.50 @ 07:23 GMT Feb 25 
• SUP 1: 5994.50 Low Feb 24           
• SUP 2: 5935.50 Low Feb 3
• SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5842.50 Low Jan 14

S&P E-Minis traded lower again, on Monday. The move down appears corrective, however, price has breached support at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and has exposed a key support at 5935.50, the Feb 3 low. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition that suggests the trend direction remains up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high.

Norway Q4 consumer confidence ticked up to -7.5 from -12.4, the ninth successive increase from a cycle low of -36.8 in Q4 2022. The series remains well below the 2010-2019 average of 13.9 though.  From the release: “Expectations for both the country's and the country's economy next year show a significant improvement. The optimism is probably influenced by the expectation of a cut in the key interest rate from Norges Bank and a good wage settlement, expected to be over 4 percent”. 

•  Looking at the details of the release, the ‘confidence in personal finances’ component rose strongly, now back to “normal levels after falling through the price and interest rate shock”.
• Indicators of major purchases (e.g. interest in buying a car, renovations, travelling) also increased, in lieu of lower propensity to save.