FOREX: Economic Data Weighs Heavily on USDJPY, Bear Cycle for Extends
Feb-05 18:26
- Yen outperformance remains the key feature of the day in G10 currency markets, as USDJPY looks to consolidate a 1.25% move lower, extending the most recent bearish theme for the pair. Moves have been underpinned by the stronger-than-expected Japanese wage data, fostering a more hawkish BOJ narrative, as well as core yields extending their slide lower in the aftermath of weaker US ISM Services data.
- USDJPY took out a number of supports throughout the session, including a key Fibonacci retracement at 152.55. This further expands the downside range, and the pair is now on track for the lowest daily close since December 10th, narrowing the gap to more meaningful support at 151.81, the Dec 12 low. Below here, attention would be on 151.06, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg.
- Following the US data, EURUSD managed to match the 50-day EMA resistance to the pip (at 1.0442), which has helped EURJPY to extend session lows in late trade, currently down 0.9% on the session, comfortably back below the pivotal 160.00 mark. Price action sees the cross narrow the gap to Monday’s lows of 157.97.
- Elsewhere, a solid showing for equities has kept the US dollar on the back foot, and the firmer risk sentiment has in turn boosted the likes of AUD and NZD which are up 0.6% and 0.75% respectively.
- Resistance levels in GBPUSD at 1.2503 (50-day EMA) and 1.2523 (Jan 27 high), have been breached Wednesday. This cancels a recent bearish threat and instead reinstates the bull cycle that started Jan 13. The break higher paves the way for a climb towards 1.2610, a Fibonacci retracement.
- German factory orders and UK construction PMI are highlights of a quiet Thursday calendar, before the Bank of England decision takes focus. US jobless claims and Fed speakers will also garner interest.
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PIPELINE: Corporate Debt Issuance Starting to Launch, Updated Guidance
Jan-06 18:10
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/06 $1B #India Export-Import Bank 10Y +100
- 01/06 $750M #Sixth Street Lending 5Y +185
- 01/06 $500M #Lincoln Financial 5Y +88
- 01/06 $Benchmark Societe Generale 4.25NC3.25 +120, 4.25NC3.25 SOFR+141, 8.25NC7.25 +160
- 01/06 $Benchmark National Australia Bank (NAB) 5Y +75a, 5Y SOFR, 11NC10 +150a
- 01/06 $Benchmark Toyota Motor Cr 2Y +55a, 2Y SOFR, 5Y +80a, 10Y +100a
- 01/06 $Benchmark CRH SMW Finance 5Y +75, 10Y +90, 30Y +105
- 01/06 $Benchmark Hyundai Cap Am 3Y +75, 3Y SOFR+95, 5Y +93
- 01/06 $Benchmark CIBC 3NC2 +60, 3NC2 SOFR+72, 6NC5 +83
- 01/06 $Benchmark EDF 10Y +145a, 30Y +180a, 2064 Tap +195a
- 01/06 $Benchmark NAB 5Y +50, 5Y SOFR+79, 11NC10 +130
- 01/06 $Benchmark Saudi Arabia 3Y +85, 6Y +100, 10Y +110
- 01/06 $Benchmark Southern Cal Edison 10Y +85, 30Y +108
- 01/06 $Benchmark Jackson National Life 2Y +65, 5Y +95a
- 01/06 $Benchmark Broadcom +3Y +53, +5Y +63, +7Y +70
- 01/06 $Benchmark Mexico 5Y +170, 12Y +230, 30Y +255
- 01/06 $Benchmark Caterpillar 2Y +25, 2Y SOFR, 5Y +42
- 01/06 $Benchmark AerCap Aviation 3Y +75, 7Y +98
- 01/06 $Benchmark John Deere Capital 2Y +25, 3Y +35
- 01/06 $Benchmark Williams Cos 10Y +100, 30Y +120
- 01/06 $Benchmark MUFG 6NC5 +78, 11NC10 +95
- 01/06 $Benchmark JBS 10Y +135, 30Y +162.5
- 01/06 $Benchmark BNP Paribas 8NC7 +127
- 01/06 $500M DBJ WNG 10Y SOFR+78a
- 01/06 $Benchmark Kexim investor calls
- 01/06 $Benchmark World Bank 7Y +57a
- 01/06 $Benchmark UBS 3NC2 +85a
- Expected Tuesday:
- 01/07 $Benchmark EIB 5Y SOFR+45a
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review 3Y Note Auction: Small Tail
Jan-06 18:05
- Treasury futures remain mostly weaker, off lows after $58B 3Y note auction (91282CMF5) draws 4.332% high yield vs. 4.320% WI; 2.62x bid-to-cover vs. 2.58x prior.
- Peripheral stats see indirect take-up slips to 60.98% vs. 64.18% prior; direct bidder take-up rebounds to 19.67% tfrom 9.62% prior; primary dealer take-up rises to 19.36% vs. 15.11% prior.
- The next 3Y auction is tentatively scheduled for February 11.
FED: US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.332%; ALLOTMENT 84.31%
Jan-06 18:02
- US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.332%; ALLOTMENT 84.31%
- US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 19.36% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 19.67% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 60.98% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 3Y AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.62
