"ECUADOR'S NOBOA APPOINTS MANZANO PERMANENT ENERGY MINISTER" - BBG ECUA 6.9% 2030, $70.75, +.24...
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Answering questions from reporters following a speech on AI, PM Sir Keir Starmer speaks on both the gov'ts commitment to fiscal rules, and his Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves.
As opposed to multiple analyst Fed view changes following Friday's payrolls report, a strong Canadian jobs report released simultaneously hasn't drawn the same response. There remain various views for terminal rates of 2.25% (bottom of BoC's 2.25-3.25% neutral estimates) or possibly below, in contrast to the market where OIS currently points to only 42bp of cuts to 2.86% in 2025.
Aside from some decent SOFR call plays, better put volume on net reported in SOFR & Treasury options overnight. Underlying futures mildly lower/off lows. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 continue to retreat, current vs. late Friday levels* as follows: Jan'25 steady at -0.7bp, Mar'25 -4.7bp (-6.3bp), May'25 -8.4bp (-10.5bp), Jun'25 -15.9bp (-18.2bp), Jul'25 -17.7bp (20.2bp).