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Feb-05 09:43

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EUROZONE DATA: EZ Composite PMI Still Lacklustre But Price Pressures Firm

Jan-06 09:38
  • The Eurozone services PMI was revised higher in December from a preliminary 51.4 to 51.6, leaving it with a complete reversal of the slide to 49.5 in Nov.  
  • France drove the upward revision (from 48.2 to 49.3 to also more firmly bounce from the 46.9 in Nov) although Germany was also revised higher from 47.8 to 48.0.
  • Whilst already implied, new data showed peripherals continued to outperform in Dec with the Spain jumping from 53.1 to 57.3 (highest since Apr’23) and Italy rising from 49.2 to 50.7 (albeit only highest since Oct).
  • Composite activity remains lacklustre though. The Eurozone composite PMI was revised up a tenth to 49.6 to lift further from a particularly weak 48.3 in Nov, but nevertheless marked a fourth month at or below 50.0.
  • The press release notes “sustained falls in new business and employment”, with “seven straight months of falling new orders”.
  • Broader expectations for growth in the coming year saw their strongest since Sept albeit with confidence still “subdued” when compared with the historical average.
  • Price pressures accelerated however: Input cost inflation saw its fastest since July, led by a “notable uptick” for services companies whilst factories input costs were unchanged. Charge inflation hit a four-month high against that backdrop but there’s that same disparity by sector, with discounting by goods producers versus “more aggressive price setting in the services industry driving overall output charge inflation up”.
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EUR: Single Currency Extends Bounce Following Eurozone/Germany Data

Jan-06 09:32
  • Markets are continuing to pare ECB easing bets following the higher-than-expected data releases across the Eurozone PMIs and the German inflation print for Hesse. As such, the Euro is strengthening and is among the best performers in G10.
  • Alongside the softer greenback, EURUSD has extended its appreciation above the prior breakout level of 1.0335, taking the pair to an intra-day high of 1.0369. Overall, the trend needle continues to point south, and initial firm resistance is at 1.0414, the 20-day EMA.
  • EURJPY is standing out, rising 0.75% at typing amid the notable weakness for the Japanese Yen overnight. We have traded above the Jan 02 high while the focus will be on 165.04, the Nov 15 high and a key short-term resistance.

MNI: UK FINAL DEC SRVICES PMI 51.1 (FLASH 51.4); NOV 50.4

Jan-06 09:30
  • MNI: UK FINAL DEC SRVICES PMI 51.1 (FLASH 51.4); NOV 50.4