EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply

• RES 4: 5381.13 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing 
• RES 3: 5335.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing     
• RES 2: 5327.00 High Jan 31 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 5185.00 Intraday high and a bull trigger           
• PRICE: 5160.00 @ 06:33 GMT Feb 3   
• SUP 1: 5112.00 Intraday low            
• SUP 2: 5050.12 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4991.00 Low Jan 15  
• SUP 4: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 and a key short-term support  

A sharp reversal lower in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract signals the end of the recent bull run - for now - and the start of a corrective cycle. Price has gapped lower and traded through the 20-day EMA, at 5152.76. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards the 50-day EMA, at 5050.12, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 5327.00, the Jan 31 high.

Austria, Spain and France are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week, whilst Finland and Belgium are due to hold ORI auctions. We also pencil in syndications from Belgium, Germany and Italy. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E40.9bln, broadly in line with the E40.9bln issued last week.

• Tomorrow, Austria will hold an RAGB auction selling a combined E1.725bln of the 5-year 3.45% Oct-30 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A38239) and the 15-year 3.20% Jul-39 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3D3Q8).
• On Thursday, Spain will hold a Bono/Obli and ObliEi auction to sell the 2.40% May-28 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O59), the 3.10% Jul-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N43), the 4.00% Oct-54 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012M93) and the 1.15% Nov-36 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012O18). The size will be announced later today.
• Also on Thursday, France will hold a LT OAT auction. As expected, there is another large target range, with E11-13bln on offer. Also as we expected, France will launch a new 10-year 3.20% May-35 OAT (ISIN: FR001400X8V5) alongside reopening the 30-year on-the-run 3.25% May-55 OAT (ISIN: FR001400OHF4). Two off-the-run issues will also be on offer the 1.25% May-36 OAT (ISIN: FR0013154044) and the 1.25% May-38 OAT (ISIN: FR0014009O62).
• Finally on Thursday, Finland will hold an ORI operation to sell up to E0.4bln. Details will be announced the preceding day.
• Concluding on Friday, Belgium will hold an ORI operation. Details will be announced the preceding day.

• RES 4: 6162.28 High Jan 24 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 6057.75 Low Jan 31 and a gap high on the daily chart 
• RES 2: 6021.01 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 5982.50 Intraday high              
• PRICE:5949.75 @ 06:31 GMT Feb 3 
• SUP 1: 5935.50 Intraday low          
• SUP 2: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 3: 5842.50 Low Jan 14 
• SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key resistance 

The S&P E-Minis contract has started the week on a bearish note. The gap lower today and breach of support at 5948.00, the Jan 27 low, strengthens a bearish threat and cancels - for now - a recent bullish theme. An extension down would open 5892.37, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial resistance is at 6057.75, the Jan 31 low and a gap high on the daily chart. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bullish theme.