EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Spain and France are both due to hold conventional auctions today and Belgium is due an ORI auction tomorrow. Already this week, the Netherlands held a DDA, Belgium and Germany held a syndication whilst Austria and Germany held auctions. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E42.6bln (excluding retail operations), up from E35.6bln last week.
For the full document including more details on issuance this week and next week click here.
- Today, Spain will hold a Bono/Obli and ObliEi auction. On offer will be a shared E4.5-5.5bln of the 3.10% Jul-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N43) alongside the on-the-run 10-year 3.15% Apr-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012O67). E250-750mln of the 0.70% Nov-33 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012C12) will also be on offer.
- This will be the first reopening of the 3.15% Apr-35 Obli, and is in line with our expectations.
- Also today, France will hold a LT OAT auction. On offer will be E11-13bln of the 4.75% Apr-35 OAT (ISIN: FR0010070060), the on-the-run 10-year 3.20% May-35 OAT (ISIN: FR001400X8V5), the 1.75% Jun-39 Green OAT (ISIN: FR0013234333) and the on-the-run 20-year 2.50% May-43 OAT (ISIN: FR001400CMX2)
- To conclude the week tomorrow, Belgium will hold an ORI operation. Details will be announced this afternoon.
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USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
- RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 155.72/156.75 20-day EMA / High Jan 23
- PRICE: 155.23 @ 06:49 GMT Feb 4
- SUP 1: 153.72/34 Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 152.55 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg
- SUP 3: 151.81 Low Dec 12
- SUP 4: 151.06 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg
USDJPY is in consolidation mode. The primary trend condition is bullish, however, the Jan 27 move down highlights a stronger bear threat. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low. A resumption of the bear leg would open 152.55, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C February 3, 2025
Spain, Belgium, the ESM and the EU are still due to sell bills this week, whilst Germany, the Netherlands and France have already issued. We expect issuance to be E25.5bln in first round operations, up from E19.3bln last week.
- This morning, Spain will sell a combined E5.5-6.5bln of the 6-month Aug 8, 2025 letras and the new 12-month Feb 6, 2026 letras.
- Also today, Belgium will look to sell E2.2-2.6bln of 3/6/11-month TCs: an indicative E0.8bln each of the May 8, 2025 TC, the Aug 14, 2025 TC and the Jan 15, 2026 TC.
- Thirdly today, the ESM will issue up to E1.1bln of the new 3-month May 8, 2025 bills.
- Finally tomorrow, the EU will come to the market to sell up to E1.5bln of the 3-month May 9, 2025 EU-bill, up to E1.5bln of the new 6-month Aug 8, 2025 EU-bill and up to E1.5bln of the new 12-month Feb 6, 2026 EU-bill.
For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Short-Term Reversal Highlights A Correction
- RES 4: 5381.13 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 5335.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: 5327.00 High Jan 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 5245.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5215.00 @ 06:20 GMT Feb 4
- SUP 1: 5112.00 Low Jan 3
- SUP 2: 5056.82 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 4991.00 Low Jan 15
- SUP 4: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 and a key short-term support
A sharp reversal lower in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract on Monday signals the end of the recent bull run - for now - and the start of a corrective cycle. Price gapped lower and traded through the 20-day EMA, at 5159.26. A continuation of the bear leg would pave the way for a move towards the 50-day EMA, at 5056.82. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 5327.00, the Jan 31 high.
