EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply - W/C 14 April
Apr-11 16:05
Germany, Finland, Greece and France are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week. There is also...
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GILTS: Cross-Market Cues Still Guiding Moves
Mar-12 15:52
Gilts following cues from Tsys/broader cross-market swings, with a recovery from session lows fading, leaving benchmark futures ~10 ticks off session lows.
- The bearish technical backdrop in the contract remains intact.
- Little in the way of domestic drivers evident since this morning’s gilt auction and DMO provisional issuance calendar for the initial weeks of FY25/26.
- Yields 3.5-5.5bp higher across the curve, flattening seen.
- 10s ~4.5bp wider vs. Bunds on the day, last ~182.5bp. This comes after the early tightening failed to test the support cluster at 175/174.5bp.
- BoE-dated OIS shows ~53bp of cuts through year end, ~5bp less dovish on the day.
- The next 25bp cut isn’t quite fully priced through June (~24.5bp of cuts showing over that horizon).
- SONIA futures flat to -7.0.
- Nothing of note on the UK calendar until Friday’s monthly economic activity data, with the BoE in its pre-meeting quiet period.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Mar-25 | 4.457 | +0.2 |
May-25 | 4.266 | -18.9 |
Jun-25 | 4.211 | -24.4 |
Aug-25 | 4.073 | -38.2 |
Sep-25 | 4.035 | -42.0 |
Nov-25 | 3.944 | -51.0 |
Dec-25 | 3.923 | -53.1 |
FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.175%(ALLOT 99.84%)
Mar-12 15:32
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.175%(ALLOT 99.84%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 27.50% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 3.28% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 69.22% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.29
CANADA: CAD Rates Hold Close To Session Lows After Macklem Q&A
Mar-12 15:28
- The BoC press conference has helped keep CAD rates close to hawkish lows seen after the earlier decision, to reverse the early rally ahead of the decision.
- CORRA futures are up to 5 ticks lower on the day in mid-2026 contracts. It translates to an implied terminal of 2.25% in the H6 (+4.5bps) for exactly at the lowest range of the BoC’s neutral estimates from 2.25-3.25%.
- As for the near-term, the Apr 16 decision is seen as roughly a 50/50 between another 25bp cut or holding at 2.75% in the mid-point of that range.
- Can-US 2Y yield differentials meanwhile have now climbed 8bps since the decision statement, back to little changed on the day at -142bps after sliding heavily ahead of the decision. Whilst still historically depressed, it’s off lows of sub -160bps in early February.
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