EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply - W/C 17 Mar (2/2)
- On Thursday, Spain will hold a Bono/Obli auction to sell the off-the-run 0.50% Apr-30 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012F76), the on-the-run 10-year 3.15% Apr-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012O67) and the 3.45% Jul-43 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K95) The size will be announced on Monday 17 March.
- Also on Thursday, France will hold a MT OAT auction with a combined E11.5-13.5bln on offer: the on-the-run 2.40% Sep-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400XLW2) and 2.75% Feb-30 OAT (ISIN: FR001400PM68), alongside the 0% May-32 OAT (ISIN: FR0014007L00) and the 3.00% May-33 OAT (ISIN: FR001400H7V7).
- Next on Thursday, Ireland will hold a IGB auction. Details will be announced Monday 17 March. We expect two lines to be on offer with a good chance of a 10-year issue (either the 2.60% Oct-34 IGB or 0.40% May-35 IGB) and/or a green bond (the 1.35% Mar-31 Green IGB or the 3.00% Oct-43 Green IGB).
- Later on Thursday, France will return to the market to hold a IL OAT auction to sell a combined E1.5-2.0bln. On offer will be the 0.60% Jul-34 OATei (ISIN: FR001400JI88), the 1.80% Jul-40 OATei (ISIN: FR0010447367), the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181) and the 0.10% Mar-36 OATi (ISIN: FR0013524014).
- Cancelled auction: Note that due to this week’s syndication / switch and tender operation, the PDMA has announced that the auction that was previously scheduled for Wednesday has been cancelled
NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week sees no redemptions. Coupon payments for the week total E4.5bln of which E2.2bln are Italian, E1.2bln are Austrian, E0.5bln are German and E0.3bln are Greek. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E21.9bln, vs negative E8.3bln this week.
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OPTIONS: Expiries for Feb13 NY Cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.0300-15(E896mln), $1.0375(E1.2bln), $1.0400(E1.3bln), $1.0500(E1.9bln)
Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Feb14 $1.0200(E1.6bln), $1.0220-25(E1.5bln), $1.0275-80(E1.9bln), $1.0300-20(E4.5bln), $1.0325(E1.6bln), $1.0400(E3.8bln), $1.0435(E1.0bln), $1.0475(E1.5bln), $1.0500(E1.4bln); Feb17 $1.0500(E2.3bln); Feb18 $1.0300(E1.7bln)
- USD/JPY: Feb14 Y150.00($1.9bln), Y150.90-00($1.6bln), Y152.00($2.3bln), Y154.00($1.2bln), Y156.00($1.7bln)
- EUR/JPY: Feb14 Y157.65(E1.7bln)
- GBP/USD: Feb14 $1.2080-00(Gbp1.2bln)
- AUD/USD: Feb14 $0.6200(A$1.2bln), $0.6275-00(A$1.3bln)
- USD/CAD: Feb14 C$1.4450($1.1bln), C$1.4600($1.1bln), C$1.4800($2.1bln)
- USD/CNY: Feb14 Cny7.1500($3.3bln), Cny7.2000($2.6bln), Cny7.3000($2.2bln), Cny7.3400($2.4bln)
USDJPY TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 156.75 High Jan 23
- RES 2: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 1: 154.51/53 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance / Intraday high
- PRICE: 154.47 @ 15:10 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 152.38/150.93 Intraday low / Low Feb 07
- SUP 2: 149.69 Low Dec 9
- SUP 3: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDJPY is trading higher today as it extends the recovery from the Feb 7 low. For now, the move higher appears to be a correction and this is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 154.51, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear breach of it would highlight a stronger reversal of the Jan 10 - Feb 7 bear leg. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. Key support and bear trigger is 150.93, the Feb 7 low.
STIR: EUR Rates Partially Retrace Hawkish US CPI Reaction
EUR rates have parially reversed the hawkish reaction spurred by the firmer-than-expected US CPI report.
- ERZ5 is currently -6.0 ticks on the session at 97.985, still below the 98.010 seen pre-US data but above the 97.955 post-data low. More generally, the strip is -2.5 to -6.5 ticks through the blues.
- ECB-dated OIS price 78bps of easing through year-end (vs 83bps at yesterday’s close and a post-data hawkish extreme of 75bps).
- Regional focus turns to Bundesbank President Nagel’s speech on neutral rates at 1700GMT. Nagel is generally considered a hawkish member of the Governing Council, so his view of neutral may lie towards the upper end of the ECB’s latest (heavily caveated) 1.75-2.25% range.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.424 | -24.0 |
| Apr-25 | 2.260 | -40.4 |
| Jun-25 | 2.086 | -57.9 |
| Jul-25 | 2.020 | -64.4 |
| Sep-25 | 1.942 | -72.2 |
| Oct-25 | 1.921 | -74.3 |
| Dec-25 | 1.884 | -78.0 |
| Feb-26 | 1.888 | -77.6 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
