EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply - W/C 17 Mar (2/2)

• EUR/USD: $1.0300-15(E896mln), $1.0375(E1.2bln), $1.0400(E1.3bln), $1.0500(E1.9bln)

Larger FX Option Pipeline

• EUR/USD: Feb14 $1.0200(E1.6bln), $1.0220-25(E1.5bln), $1.0275-80(E1.9bln), $1.0300-20(E4.5bln), $1.0325(E1.6bln), $1.0400(E3.8bln), $1.0435(E1.0bln), $1.0475(E1.5bln), $1.0500(E1.4bln); Feb17 $1.0500(E2.3bln); Feb18 $1.0300(E1.7bln)
• USD/JPY: Feb14 Y150.00($1.9bln), Y150.90-00($1.6bln), Y152.00($2.3bln), Y154.00($1.2bln), Y156.00($1.7bln)
• EUR/JPY: Feb14 Y157.65(E1.7bln)
• GBP/USD: Feb14 $1.2080-00(Gbp1.2bln)
• AUD/USD: Feb14 $0.6200(A$1.2bln), $0.6275-00(A$1.3bln)
• USD/CAD: Feb14 C$1.4450($1.1bln), C$1.4600($1.1bln), C$1.4800($2.1bln)
• USD/CNY: Feb14 Cny7.1500($3.3bln), Cny7.2000($2.6bln), Cny7.3000($2.2bln), Cny7.3400($2.4bln)

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a bull trigger   
• RES 3: 156.75 High Jan 23 
• RES 2: 155.89 High Feb 3 
• RES 1: 154.51/53 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance / Intraday high       
• PRICE: 154.47 @ 15:10 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: 152.38/150.93 Intraday low / Low Feb 07
• SUP 2: 149.69 Low Dec 9 
• SUP 3: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24     

USDJPY is trading higher today as it extends the recovery from the Feb 7 low. For now, the move higher appears to be a correction and this is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 154.51, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear breach of it would highlight a stronger reversal of the Jan 10 - Feb 7 bear leg. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. Key support and bear trigger is 150.93, the Feb 7 low.

EUR rates have parially reversed the hawkish reaction spurred by the firmer-than-expected US CPI report. 

• ERZ5 is currently -6.0 ticks on the session at 97.985, still below the 98.010 seen pre-US data but above the 97.955 post-data low. More generally, the strip is -2.5 to -6.5 ticks through the blues.
• ECB-dated OIS price 78bps of easing through year-end (vs 83bps at yesterday’s close and a post-data hawkish extreme of 75bps).
• Regional focus turns to Bundesbank President Nagel’s speech on neutral rates at 1700GMT. Nagel is generally considered a hawkish member of the Governing Council, so his view of neutral may lie towards the upper end of the ECB’s latest (heavily caveated) 1.75-2.25% range.