BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Week Ends On A Bear Flattening Note

A new survey from NPR/PBS News/Marist found that President-elect Donald Trump, "will begin his presidency in [a] delicate position,” noting that survey respondents “have high expectations that their personal financial situations will improve under Trump, but more think tariffs will hurt rather than help the economy.”

• NPR notes: “Trump has promised bold action, but, as the NPR poll shows, the politics may be tricky. Presidents often become vulnerable because of overreach. They tend to believe — falsely — that because they were elected, they have a mandate for everything on their agenda. Clearly, that's not the case.”
• Lee Miringoff at Marist notes: "The opening round of the second term is not going well with the public. Americans are not convinced of Trump's agenda pillars, including pardons and tariffs. Mass deportations are only getting mixed reviews."

Figure 1: Support for President-elect Trump's Policy Proposals

Source: NPR, Marist, PBS News

One last point on Taylor here before the Q&A starts - he's also talking about potential evolutions of scenario analysis and noting that the cases looked at will change over time.

• He raises the possibility of a potential downside risk to case 1 - in which Bank Rate might need to be "below the neutral level for a time, as in past downturns".
• He notes that "The risk of this case may be small as of now, but the costs, both of undershooting the inflation target and of a recession, could be very high."

• Canada has sold C$6bn of the 2.75% Mar’30 at an average yield of 3.229%.
• The bid-to-cover of 2.275 was close to the prior five-auction average of 2.23, after some low bid-to-cover results for 2s and 10s recently.