NATGAS: EIA Gas Release Expected To Show Withdrawal Of 265Bcf
Feb-27 15:18
The US EIA gas storage data due for release at 10:30ET (15:30GMT) is expected to show a withdrawal of 265bcf for the week ending Feb. 21, according to BNEF.
- A Bloomberg survey average suggests a draw of 266bcf on the week while a Reuters survey shows a 266bcf draw, WSJ a 265bcf draw and NGI a 277bcf draw. The seasonal five year average shows a net withdrawal of around 141bcf.
- EIA data last week showed total working gas in storage was at 2,101bcf after a withdrawal of 196bcf on the week.
- BNEF estimates total consumption rising 9.6bcf/d w/w to 130.8bcf/d on the back of higher residential/commercial and power generation demand.
- Total supply is estimated down on the week by 0.6bcf/d w/w to 91.8bcf/d with an increase in Canadian imports offset by a decline in domestic production and increased LNG exports, as well as slightly higher exports to Mexico.
- The early view for the week ending Feb. 28 is a withdrawal of 106bcf.
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US DATA: Consumer Sentiment Slips In January With Softer Jobs Perceptions
Jan-28 15:15
- The Conference Board consumer survey saw confidence disappoint in January at 104.1 (cons 105.9) after an upward revised 109.5 (initial 104.7) for its lowest since September
- Declines were seen in both main categories, also to their lowest since September, but were most pronounced for the present situation.
- Present situation: 134.3 after an upward revised 144.0 (initial 140.2).
- Expectations: 83.9 after an upward revised 86.5 (initial 81.1).
- Within the details, the closely watched labor market differential gave back some of its recent gains as it fell from 22.2 (highest since May) to 16.2 (technically lowest since Sept).
- The perception of jobs plentiful fell from 37% to 33% vs the 46% averaged in 2019 or 40% through 2017-19.
- By rising again, the differential points to some further trend increases in the unemployment rate although it shouldn’t be used as a month-to-month guide.
SEK: Tariffs Key To EURSEK Outlook
Jan-28 15:13
- Zooming out, the greatest risk to SEK this year is likely Trump’s tariff approach. The imposition of tariffs on EU companies would likely weigh on European equities, which traditionally weakens SEK relative to G10 peers. Additionally, broader EU economic weakness on the back of the tariffs may reduce demand for Swedish exports.
- However, the ECB’s monetary policy response to US tariffs (assuming the negative growth channel dominates the inflation channel) is likely to be more dovish than the Riksbank’s. The Swedish policy rate is already approaching assumed neutral levels, underscored by the Riksbank’s more cautious stance. Meanwhile, the ECB could still cut by 75bps (following Thursday’s fully priced 25bp cut) before reaching assumed neutral levels of 2%. More on the ECB in our preview here.
- Finally, the impact of past Riksbank cuts is expected increase real GDP by 1.9% Y/Y in 2025 (BBG consensus), handily outperforming the Eurozone growth consensus of 1.0% Y/Y.
- It’s these M/T rate and growth differentials that could prove a key driver of the EURSEK vol curve which, alongside broader G10 FX vol, has shifted lower during the course of this month.
MNI: US CONF BOARD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 104.1 IN JAN V DEC 98.7
Jan-28 15:12
- MNI: US CONF BOARD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 104.1 IN JAN V DEC 98.7
