EMISSIONS: EIB Invests Record Amount In Spanish Green Projects in 2024

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 3: 1.0568 High Dec 10
• RES 2: 1.0463 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 1.0437 High Jan 6
• PRICE: 1.0417 @ 15:09 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 1.0260/0178 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0095 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing    

The trend condition in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bearish. For now, the latest recovery appears corrective, however, the pair has breached the 20-day EMA, at 1.0338, and pierced trendline resistance at 1.0403, drawn from the Sep 30 ‘24 high. A clear breach of the line would expose the 50-day EMA at 1.0463. Clearance of this average would strengthen a bullish condition. Key support and the bear trigger is at 1.0178, the Jan 13 low. 

• RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16  
• RES 2: 6107.50 High Dec 26 
• RES 1: 6078.25 Intraday high            
• PRICE: 6071.00 @ 16:06 GMT Jan 20 
• SUP 1: 5961.75 Low Jan 16         
• SUP 2: 5879.50/5809.00 Low Jan 15 / 13 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg

S&P E-Minis are trading higher, marking an extension of last week’s bull phase. The move higher undermines the recent bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and attention is on resistance at 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Clearance of 6107.50 would strengthen a bullish theme. Key support has been defined at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. A reversal lower and a breach of this level would reinstate a bear theme.

GBP STIRs away from hawkish session extremes on the headlines playing down the likelihood of imminent tariffs from the Trump administration.

• That leaves 61.5bp of BoE cuts priced through year-end vs. ~64bp early today and ~59bp at one stage this afternoon.
• A reminder that ~36bp of cuts were briefly priced through year-end late last Tuesday.
• The next 25bp cut is still fully discounted through the end of the March MPC meeting, with ~21.5bp priced for next month.
• SONIA futures last flat to -3.0.
• UK labour market data is due first thing tomorrow (07:00 London), expect our full preview of that release shortly.