CONSUMER STAPLES: Elo/Auchan; FY earnings results leaks

Bank of Spain Governor Escriva noted that a January EC cut was a likely scenario, but re-iterated the need for a “data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting” approach given the high uncertainty facing the European and global economy.

• Escriva said that incoming information since June has confirmed the ECB’s central scenario: Inflation converging to 2% and a (slow) recovery of economic activity. He conceded that downside risks to growth stem largely from domestic demand (consumption and investment), rather than net trade.
• On the prospect of US tariffs, while Escriva said the ECB has done simulations on possible effects, the calibration is difficult because “it depends on the reaction of third party countries”.

Of note:

EURUSD 1.19bn at 1.0400.

USDJPY 1.3bn at 155.50.

AUDUSD 2.11bn at 0.6210 (a little far).

USDJPY 1.65bn at 155.00 (thu).

NZDUSD 1bn at0.5660/0.5675 (thu).

USDJPY 1.3bn at 155.95/156.00 (mon).

• EURUSD: 1.0375 (856mln), 1.0400 (1.19bn), 1.0410 (528mln), 1.0425 (292mln), 1.0450 (262mln), 1.0500 (1.04bn).
• GBPUSD: 1.2350 (293mln).
• USDJPY: 155.50 (1.3bn).
• AUDUSD: 0.6210 (2.11bn), 0.6245 (475mln).
• USDCNY: 7.2500 (649mln).

DUG5 106.70/106.80cs, sold at 2.5 in 5k vs 1.25k at 106.675.