EU UTILITIES: Enel (ENELIM Baa1/BBB/BBB+): FY24 Results
Credit neutral, mostly in line.
- Enel reported revenue 15% below expectations on lower production and trading volumes.
- Adj. EBITDA was in line with consensus and guidance.
- We see FCF at €3.05bn, with expectations for €5.2bn on light CFO. Dividends of €5.1bn exceeded that, but asset sales saw net debt decrease YoY, albeit €0.9bn higher than expected at €55.8bn. That left reported net leverage at 2.4x, as guided at the November CMD and unchanged QoQ. FFO/ND was 25%.
- It reiterated its strategic plans through 2027 announced at the CMD in November. FY25 EBITDA guidance was in line with consensus.
- Webcast replay https://events.enel.com/full-year-2024/event/homepage.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Short-Term Reversal Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6162.25 High Jan 24
- RES 2: 6147.75 High Jan 31
- RES 1: 6123.25 High Feb 7
- PRICE: 6086.50 @ 07:24 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 6014.00/5935.50 Low Feb 10 / 3
- SUP 2: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5842.50 Low Jan 14
- SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key resistance
Price action on Feb 3 in the S&P E-Minis contract continues to highlight a possible short-term reversal threat. If correct, it suggests that the latest bounce is a correction. A resumption of weakness would open 5892.37, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, a stronger rally would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.
USD: Notable overnight moves in the Yen
- The Dollar saw a flat session overnight across all G10s, although one Currency clearly sticks out, and that's the Volatile Yen, the push higher in Yields has clearly played its part, our Overnight desk pointed to BoJ Governor Ueda appearing before parliament earlier, noting there is a risk that higher food inflation impacts inflation expectations more broadly. Ueda reiterated that further hikes will depend on the economy and price developments.
- Also most importantly the Japanese Government has asked for an exemption on Steel and Aluminium Tariffs, with desks looking for this to be denied.
- Tariffs risks remain the main concerns Globally.
- USDJPY is down 0.70% post the European Cash Govie open, but USDJPY is 20 pips off the printed high right now.
- Technically, next upside target in USDJPY is at 154.17 20-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 2: $2955.3 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: $2942.7 - High Feb 11
- PRICE: $2895.4 @ 07:27 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: $2852.7 - Low Feb 7
- SUP 2: $2799.3 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2731.2 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $2689.5 - Low Jan 20
A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent highs. The continued appreciation once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2779.3, the 20-day EMA.
