EU FINANCIALS: Erste Bank - 4Q24 Results
Credit positive - Generally ahead of expectations on higher revenue. The increase in provisions is concerning but was expected and is guided to decrease to 25bps CoR in 2025.
- NII of €1,938 was 1.8% up on Q3. Fee income of €780 was up 6.1%.
- Expenses increased meaningfully, up 9.3% on Q4 2023
- Impairments of €186m in Q4 is higher than the entirety of 2023 impairments. Represents 36bps CoR. NPL ratio climbs to 2.6%, up 0.3pts.
- The higher impairments are the main driver of Net income falling 11.5% QoQ to €609m
- CET1 falls to 15.1% (1% above target). 194bps of capital generation offset by -123bps RWA increase and -153bps of distributions
- Performance - ERSTBK rallied roughly in line with banks more broadly QoQ, but RBIAV's good performance did mean it underperformed other Austrian banks.
- 2025 outlook
- RoTE 15%
- NII flat, Fee income +5%
- Cost of risk <25bps
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EQUITIES: ASML is up 11% on the Open, LVHM falls
Big move in the Tech index, way past pre DeepSeek's collapse.
(chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).
SILVER TECHS: Recent Gains Appear Corrective
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $31.022 - High Jan 24
- PRICE: $30.417 @ 08:07 GMT Jan 29
- SUP 1: $29.509/28.748 - Low Jan 13 / Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Silver is unchanged. A bear cycle that started on Oct 23 last year remains in play and recent gains are considered corrective. However, the latest move higher does suggest scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would expose key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. On the downside, support to watch is $29.509, the Jan 13 low, and $29.748, the Dec 19 low and the bear trigger.
USDCAD TECHS: Continues To Trade Inside A Range
- RES 4: 1.4660 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4564 3.500 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4516 High Jan 21
- PRICE: 1.4414 @ 08:02 GMT Jan 29
- SUP 1: 1.4261 Low Jan 20
- SUP 2: 1.4259 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.4120 Low Dec 11
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD continues to trade inside a range. Recent price action highlights resistance at 1.4516, the Jan 21 low, and support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. Both levels represent important short-term directional triggers. The trend condition is bullish and a clear breach of 1.4516 would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. For bears, a move through 1.4261 and 1.4259, the 50-day EMA, would instead highlight a possible reversal.
