EQUITIES: Estoxx put spread

The USD and e-minis are lower after U.S. President Trump pointed towards a period of economic transition, failing to rule out a recession.

• The BBDXY got close to Friday’s multi-month low in Asia hours, before USD bears lost intraday momentum, allowing a recovery. E-minis are also off lows but still sit ~0.5% softer on the day.
• NOK the G10 FX outperformer in the wake of the firmer-than-expected domestic CPI data. NOK/SEK moves further away from ’20 lows, which provided support during last week’s sell off.
• USD/JPY got near Friday’s lows but failed to break below 147.00 before retracing to 147.70.
• Cable threatened a clean break above Friday’s peak during the initial round of USD weakness, but bulls ultimately failed to force the pair meaningfully higher after registering the highest level seen since November (1.2946). GBP is now lower vs. all G10 peers.
• New York Fed inflation expectations data is due today, as is the ECB’s survey of monetary analysts.
• We will also hear from ECB’s Nagel.
• Further out, U.S. CPI data (Wednesday) headlines this week’s macro calendar, with the ECB’s Watchers conference also eyed.

• RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 ‘24 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 6166.50 High Jan 19
• RES 2: 5993.68 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 5884.00/5942.67 High Mar 4 / 20-day EMA                 
• PRICE: 5743.75 @ 07:23 GMT Mar 10  
• SUP 1: 5673.00 Low Mar 7               
• SUP 2: 5658.00 Low Sep 12 ‘24 
• SUP 3: 5584.85 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 ‘24 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 5523.00 Low Sep 11 2024      

A bear threat in S&P E-Minis remains present following last week’s move lower that reinforced a short-term downtrend. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low again, Friday, marking an extension of the current bear leg. This highlights a stronger reversal and a double top pattern on the daily scale. The focus is on 5658.00, the Sep 12 2024 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5993.68, the 50-day EMA.

A reminder that U.S. clocks rolled 1-hour forwards over the weekend, adjust your schedules accordingly.