EQUITIES: EU Cash Opening calls
Feb-13 07:56
EU Cash opening calls, set for a decent open, Dax Futures outperforms.
- Estox 50: +1.01%, Dax: +1.33%, CAC: +0.98%, FTSE -0.01%, SMI +0.73%.
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EQUITIES: EU Cash opening calls
Jan-14 07:56
European Equities are set for a decent Open, should still be short of pre NFP level, Estoxx futures (VGH5) would need a test back to 5040.00.
And for the US Emini, it would need another 55 points gains, up to 5950.25 for an NFP reversal.
- Calls: Estox 50: +0.94%, Dax: +0.58%, CAC: +1.03%, FTSE +0.16%, SMI +0.91%.
STIR: Around 45bp Of BoE Cuts Priced For '25
Jan-14 07:53
Modest dovish moves in GBP STIRs this morning, with core global FI markets edging away from yesterday’s lows.
- SONIA futures flat to +2.0, last week’s cycle lows intact across the strip.
- The BCC’s latest survey provided further signs of a slowing labour market, with ~1/6 of firms trimming hiring in late ’24, representing the highest such share seen since early ‘21
- Tomorrow’s inflation readings headline this week’s UK data calendar.
- We see some risk that air fares reverse some of the softness seen in November - although this is very dependent on the survey date. We assume the survey date was 10 December but if it is 17 December there are risks of a higher print. We will publish our full CPI preview later today.
- Comments from BoE’s Breeden are due again today, but as is the case with most of her speeches, there is unlikely to be much on monpol here. She is giving the keynote speech at the Financial Stability Law Forum’s ‘financial stability and too big too fail’ symposium in Zurich.
- More focus will be placed on Chancellor Reeves’ appearance in the Commons, with MPs set to question the UK’s fiscal outlook after the recent increase in market-based fiscal risk premia.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Feb-25 | 4.531 | -16.9 |
| Mar-25 | 4.507 | -19.3 |
| May-25 | 4.411 | -28.9 |
| Jun-25 | 4.394 | -30.6 |
| Aug-25 | 4.337 | -36.3 |
| Sep-25 | 4.318 | -38.2 |
| Nov-25 | 4.272 | -42.8 |
| Dec-25 | 4.260 | -44.0 |
OAT: OAT/Bund Tightens 1.5bps As Faure Notes Agreement With Govt Nearing
Jan-14 07:49
Latest French political headlines from BBG: "FRENCH SOCIALIST CHIEF SAYS MAY BE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH GOVT" . This comes ahead of PM Bayrou's general policy speech at 1500CET today.
- The 10-year OAT/Bund spread has tightened ~1.5bps since that headline crossed, now at ~82.5bps.
- Our political risk team noted yesterday that Bayrou's speech is being watched closely for signs of whether he will roll back some of the pension reforms pushed through by President Emmanuel Macron in 2023.
- There has been speculation in recent days that Bayrou could temporarily postpone the gradual raising of the retirement age to 64 in an effort to gain the support of the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) which could be critical in avoiding a successful censure motion.
- However, in appeasing the centre-left Bayrou risks alienating the centre-right.
